Episode 91: GoldMoney’s Andy Duncan speaks to Mike “Mish” Shedlock about the entire global financial situation, but particularly focusing upon the debate between those who believe in deflation of the money and credit supply versus those who believe in inflation. As a believer in the former scenario, Mish argues that many Austrian economists have ignored the role of credit in economies, and that “hyperinflationists” are too US-centric in their analysis. He argues that in the short-term, he sees 2008-style “credit events” as more likely to occur in Japan, China, and Europe. Shedlock also mentions the deflationary impact we can expect from the increasing use of robots in manufacturing, and how the currency wars are affecting the inflation/deflation dynamic.
They discuss the Federal Reserve’s potential treatment of excess reserves, the use of helicopters by Ben Bernanke to stem deflation via bundles of money produced via the Fed’s printing press, and the similarities of the situation between America’s current position and that of Japan 20 years ago. Mish outlines what he would do if he was put in charge at the Fed.
Following on from this, they talk about the recent agreement of the Bank of Japan to follow prime minister Shinzo Abe’s instructions to follow a 2% price inflation target, as well as discussing the financial situation in the eurozone and the UK.
This podcast was recorded on 22 January 2013 and previously published at GoldMoney.com.
Episode 92: GoldMoney’s Andy Duncan talks to Gordon Kerr of Cobden Partners, a financial engineer and specialist in debt capital markets. They talk about Mr Kerr’s pivotal role in the leveraging of British and European banks prior to the crash of 2008, before moving on to discuss the Basel initiatives, designed by various global regulators to try to prevent systemic failures in the financial system. They discuss why these measures are ineffective. Gordon Kerr describes his view of the current financial situation, particularly of British and European banks, and how he sees banking and accounting regulations developing over the next few years.
The article which describes how Mr Kerr and his team leveraged the British and then European banking systems is at this link.
This podcast was recorded on 21 January 2013 and previously published at GoldMoney.com.
Episode 88: GoldMoney’s Andy Duncan talks to Doug Casey, the founder and chairman of Casey Research and the author of a new book called Totally Incorrect. They discuss the current state of global finance and the chances of an upcoming paper money collapse.
Casey points out that the recovery after the 2008 financial crisis is just an illusion created by central bank money printing which will ultimately lead to very high inflation once bank lending starts to pick up again. Both men discuss what will happen when all the US dollars currently held overseas are repatriated as foreigners lose confidence in the greenback. They also speculate about what Keynesians might be thinking at the moment, and analyse how non-western central banks are beginning to behave with regards to gold.
They evaluate the likelihood of western economic collapse in 2013, what this would imply for the global monetary standing of gold, and how GoldMoney subscribers can best protect themselves and their assets. On this note they also talk about how a future world monetary situation might look like once we are through the Keynesian collapse. Casey also speculates about how the theories of Professor Hans Hermann-Hoppe might have applicability to the shape of the world order post-crash, and what readers can look forward to if they purchase a copy of Totally Incorrect.
Finally, they discuss what type of “black swans” we can expect to land in the coming months.
This podcast was recorded on 15 January 2013 and previously published at GoldMoney.com.
Episode 87: GoldMoney’s Andy Duncan talks to Nigel Farage MEP, leader of the United Kingdom Independence Party, and co-chair of the Europe of Freedom and Democracy Group within the European Parliament.
They talk about the ongoing euro currency situation and the recent speeches from Mr Barroso, the President of the European Commission. They also discuss the recent news of the German Bundesbank’s decision to repatriate some of its physical gold reserves from the USA and France, and what the chances are of the UK leaving the EU – “Brexit” – in the next few years, and the likely fate of the euro and the EU itself.
This podcast was recorded on 15 January 2013 and previously published at GoldMoney.com.
Episode 86: Professor Patrick Barron is an Austrian School economist who teaches courses in banking and economics at the University of Wisconsin-Madison and the University of Iowa. He also writes regular pieces for Mises.org.
Professor Barron has put forward the idea that the only route out of the ongoing euro crisis for Germany is an initial return to the Deutschmark, followed preferably by a subsequent move to a golden Deutschmark. He discusses this idea with GoldMoney’s Andy Duncan, along with the three major obstacles to his desired outcome, which include a lack of current party-political support in Germany for this idea, along with outside political influences over Germany’s monetary policies, and the growing uncertainty over Germany’s access to its own physical gold supply.
As well as exploring the current financial situation in Europe, Professor Barron also comments upon the recent fiscal cliff event in the United States, and mentions the recent article in The New York Times, by Paul Krugman, on the subject of a special trillion dollar platinum coin. He explains why eventually he believes the US dollar will go back to a link with gold, and why he thinks the price of gold may then reach $38,000 dollars an ounce. Professor Barron runs his own website, which GoldMoney subscribers can find at www.patrickbarron.blogspot.com/.
The book mentioned heavily in the interview, The Tragedy of the Euro, by Professor Philipp Bagus, can be downloaded for free from this link.
This podcast was recorded on 11 January 2013 and previously published at GoldMoney.com.
Episode 84: Andy Duncan talks to “Austrian” economist, Professor Thorsten Polleit, about a recent speech he gave entitled “What Do Bankers Know About Money and Banking?” Dr Polleit is Chief Economist for Degussa Goldhandel in Germany, and for 12 years until April of 2012 was the Chief German Economist for Barclays Capital. He lectures in Economics at the Frankfurt School of Finance and Management, and the universities of Bayreuth and Duisburg-Essen.
Andy and Thorsten discuss the latter’s monetary theory of how fiat currency tends to result in “collective corruption” in societies, and how this then leads to hyperinflation, despite the dangers to society that hyperinflation always brings. They also debate the development of global fiat currency over the last 40 years, and how increasing levels of debt may mark its terminal decline. Governments may plan for this decline by re-introducing gold-backing to Western currencies.
Episode 78: GoldMoney’s Andy Duncan interviews James Turk, Chairman of GoldMoney and co-author of The Collapse of the Dollar, about his study of the aboveground global gold stock, gold’s role as money, and the coming fiat currency collapse. They discuss the discrepancies between official gold stock figures and the study’s carefully calculated figures, going all the way back to Roman times and using the year 1492 as a pivotal calculation point – which was when the Spanish Empire began its imports of gold deposits discovered in the Americas. In contrast to the widely referenced number of 171,000 tonnes of aboveground gold, James’s study suggests that it is actually closer to 155,000 and therefore overstated by about 10%.
James explains that gold is not an investment, but money. He talks about the difference between money and currency, and emphasises the ability of gold to preserve purchasing power over long periods of time (as opposed to fiat currency). Given the lack of discipline exhibited by central banks and politicians, James’s outlook for paper currencies is gloomy. He predicts one or more fiat currency collapses to take place sometime between 2013 and 2015.
Episode 80: Andy Duncan talks to Jeff Berwick, founder of The Dollar Vigilante, CEO of TDV Media & Services, and the host of Anarchast. They discuss the current state of global finance and the chances of an upcoming paper money collapse.
Berwick pays particular attention to the decline of the United States, and why this decline will continue in a debt-fuelled downward cycle. He sees major inflation as the only way the current financial system can continue, but that this will eventually end in hyperinflation in a few years’ time. He doesn’t think that the Basel III zero-risk rating of gold – taking effect from January 1 – will have much of an impact on the gold market.
They discuss how individuals can protect themselves over the next few years, if governments start to institute capital controls and other measures to defend the current fiat money system, and how private enterprise monies may arise on the other side of a great financial transition. Berwick further discusses how gold and silver may become the major private monies, ahead of systems such as BitCoin.
They conclude with a discussion Mr Berwick’s creation of a modern-day “Galt’s Gulch” in Chile, for liberty-minded individuals to consider moving to, and Jeff’s predictions of where the “black financial swans” circulating around the western world will first land.
This podcast was recorded on 4 December 2012 and previously published at GoldMoney.com
Episode 73: GoldMoney’s Andy Duncan talks to Godfrey Bloom, who represents Yorkshire and North Lincolnshire in the European Parliament, and who is a member of the parliament’s Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs. They talk about the possibility of Germany instituting a gold-backed Deutschmark, and broader issues to do with European monetary and fiscal policy.
In a recent Mises.org daily article co-authored with Patrick Barron, Mr Bloom states that Germany now has a “Golden Opportunity” to get back to sound money by pulling out of the euro and introducing a gold-backed Deutschmark. However, given the lack of a comprehensive audit, suspicions about the integrity of the German gold reserves remain. Bloom therefore advocates that Germany should repatriate its physical gold from the storage locations abroad.
They also talk about monetary policies of the European Union, the errors of European politicians and whether or not the eurozone can be sustained. In addition, they also discuss Britain’s relationship with the EU and Britain’s own precarious financial position, particularly in relation to its welfare state and deficit spending.
This podcast was recorded on 21 November 2012 and previously published at GoldMoney.com.
Episode 77: GoldMoney’s Andy Duncan speaks to James Turk, Chairman of GoldMoney and co-author of The Collapse of the Dollar (2004), about his claim that central banks are holding less in their physical gold reserves than many assume.
James Turk explains the problem that central banks report gold and gold receivables as one line item on their balance sheets. This allows them to lease out physical gold in return for paper claims – posing the question of just how much physical gold is left.
They also discuss the Gold Money Index and the gold-based Fear Index. Both show that gold remains undervalued compared with historical norms. They talk about how close we are to a “Golden Cliff”, where the western central banks stop lending out their gold, and what the systemic repercussions of this are likely to be.
Finally, they assess the chances of Western governments undertaking gold confiscation and capital control measures; the likely amount of physical gold held at Fort Knox; and the reasons behind their prediction of an upcoming failure of fiat paper currency.
This podcast was recorded on 30 November 2012 and previously published at GoldMoney.com.