The forthcoming global crisis
The global economy is now in an expansionary phase, with bank credit being increasingly available for non-financial borrowers. This is always the prelude to…
Read MoreEconomics
Does the central bank determine interest rates?
According to mainstream thinking, the central bank is the key factor in determining interest rates. By setting short-term interest rates, the central bank, it…
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Is Chinese growth about to falter?
The IMF revised Chinese growth forecasts higher in July – were they premature? Retail sales, industrial output and fixed investment have slowed The Real…
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Benn Steil: How We Know Eurozone Monetary Policy is Working Again
In 2013, I showed that the ECB’s monetary transmission mechanism had broken down in the crisis-hit periphery countries. ECB rate cuts were not being passed on…
Read MoreHere we go again…
As world stock markets continued to climb to cyclical – if not all – time highs, it became almost the norm for industry talking…
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Does the rising price of industrial metals herald the beginning of the next commodity super-cycle?
Super-cycle theory In a 2012 paper for the United Nations/DESA – Super-cycles of commodity prices since the mid-nineteenth century – Bilge Erten and José Antonio Ocampo…
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Further thoughts on Gibson’s paradox
“The paradox is one of the most completely established empirical facts in the whole field of quantitative economics.” – John Maynard Keynes “The Gibson…
Read MoreMoney multiplier is really about credit out of “thin air”
According to traditional economics textbooks, the current monetary system amplifies the initial monetary injections of money. The popular story goes as follows: if the…
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Deafblind
“Most economists, it seems, believe strongly in their own superior intelligence and take themselves far too seriously. In his open letter of 22 July…
Read MoreSee no evil, speak no evil…
The Jackson Hole speeches of Janet Yellen and Mario Draghi last week were notable for the omission of any comment about the burning issues…
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