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Economics

CentreRight: On economic forecasting and double-dip recession

Over at CentreRight, I have set out briefly the mistake presently being made by policymakers in the US, which I expect to be mirrored in the UK later this morning. For example:

Injecting more new money, whether through QE or credit expansion in excess of real savings, will not “fight recession”. It will merely delay and worsen the eventual downturn, because injecting new money is bound to shift activity from sustainable economic action to action supported only by that new money.

Sooner or later, the mainstream economic paradigm must shift to accept the importance of time and hence a robust capital theory. Everyone’s prosperity depends upon it.

Events

Dr Anthony J Evans: Blogging the Chancellors

You may have noticed that tonight will be a live debate between the three politicians vying to become Chancellor. It will be broadcast on Channel 4 from 8pm. As part of this Reuters will be live blogging and I’ve been invited to contribute. You can follow the conversation here.

via The Filter^: Blogging the Chancellors.

Economics

Wednesday was Gent at the Liberal Archive with LVSV

Following the honour of chairing an Economic Policy Centre dinner in London on Tuesday evening, Wednesday saw me travel to Gent in Belgium where I was delighted to deliver an hour long lecture – followed by another hour of questions and answers – to the fabulously sound students of the Liberal Students Movement – LVSV. As one of Belgian’s leading student societies, now approaching their 80th anniversary, not only is this group astonishingly active, but also they muster huge audiences.

Prior to the formal proceedings of the evening, the group’s committee took me out to a wonderful dinner. Telling me how delighted they were to have me with them, and commenting that “my reputation preceded me” (I think that was a complement!), they informed me that many people in the audience were already well versed in Mises, Rothbard and the teachings of the Austrian School of Economics. Moreover, they said that we would be joined by students and friends from the Rothbard Institute, which indeed we were.

While I performed well and all the feedback from those who attended has been positive, it was a real delight for me to give my talk in the city’s Liberal Archive building. Indeed, to speak in a library lined with a vast collection of sound classical liberal texts and which includes all the modern greats only added to the sense of occasion. I was also delighted to learn that its excellent array of books – including those of an Austrian disposition – are also being regularly accessed and used by an ever-larger number of PhD students.

In true Belgian style the evening ended with around a third of the audience (30 people) retiring to a local beer garden where we enjoyed the warmth of good intellectual company and what turned out to be a wonderful Spring evening. That said, right at the end of the evening, I was somewhat surprised yet delighted to see many of the youngsters with me handing around copies of the Adam Smith Institute’s latest offering – A Beginners Guide to Liberty – which they had just imported from London. Funny old world!

Economics

TCC launches Education Network

In line with TCC’s 2010 business plan, the organisation has just launched its Education Network. Recognising the pivotal importance of out-reach to young scholars and other people across a range of organisations and groups, it signals our hunger to address audiences on such topics as banking, money, international free trade and peace. If you want TCC to provide your organisation or group with speakers then do not hesitate to contact us. Over the months ahead, this section will be expanded with a further range of educational out-reach opportunities and programmes. So, do watch this space.

Economics

Dinner with the former Prime Minister of Georgia

Last week, Jamie Whyte, James Tyler, Tom Clougherty and I attended a dinner with numerous others at which the former Prime Minister of Georgia, Vladimer ‘Lado’ Gurgenidze spoke. Hosted by good our friends at the Adam Smith Institute, the evening was a showcase of sound reform and what can be achieved by politicians who have a clear vision and will to set people free. Don’t take my word for it. Get a flavour from the man himself, here.

Economics

Austrian economics, meeting Lew Rockwell and having time with Ron Paul

As previously mentioned on this blog, TCC’s Chairman Toby Baxendale and I traveled to Jeykell Island in the US the weekend before last to attend a major conference hosted by the good people of the Ludwig von Mises Institute. Headed ‘The Birth and Death of the Fed’ not only was the event very impressive in its own right – very well organised with several hundred people in attendance – but there were lots of excellent speakers exploring money and banking from an Austrian school perspective. You can listen to the main highlights here through these links:

Robert P. Murphy – Only the Austrians can Can Explain Depressions

Christopher Westley - Why the Fed Got Birthed?

Peter G. Klein – Did Keynesian Economics Win the Battle of Ideas?

Doug French – Failure and Prosperity

Llewellyn H. Rockwell Jr. – Parallel Lives: Liberty or Power?

Joseph T. Salerno – The Macroeconomics of the Fed: Mainstream and Austrian

Mark Thornton – What Were They Saying in July 2007?

George A. Selgin – The Fed’s Dismal Record

Gary North – Heckle and Jekyll: How Murray Rothbard Got the Fed’s Story Right

Thomas E. Woods, Jr. - The Source and Workings of the Latest Crisis

Ron Paul – My Battle Against the Fed

For me, it was not only a delight to listen to and meet Lew Rockwell but it was also a particular pleasure to meet and talk with Congressman Ron Paul. A most intelligent and moral person, I found him to be every bit the gentleman I had expected.

Economics

Steve Baker speaks at the IEA on fiscal policy

Capital-based macroeconomicsOn Tuesday, I spoke at the IEA’s The State of the Economy conference, participating in a panel discussion on Fiscal Policy and Government Expenditure with Edmund Conway, Sir John Bourn, Graeme Leach and Danny Alexander MP.

In discussions about when to begin cuts, I flatly rejected Keynesianism, explaining that capital-based macroeconomics gives a quite different set of tools for thinking about the economy. This generated interest from students and professional economists present so I have updated our primer, adding The Causes of the Economic Crisis and Garrison’s macroeconomics slides.

I also recommend these articles as a quick-start to rethinking money, banking and economics:

And for a light-hearted treatment of the same concepts, here’s the Hayek vs Keynes video:

Enjoy!

Events

Toby and Tim off to the US

Tomorrow, Toby and I are off to the US for a conference. While I am not looking forward to the early start and the particularly long flight, I am looking forward to meeting Lew Rockwell of the Ludwig Von Mises Institute and Congressman Ron Paul.

I am also looking forward to meeting lots of other enthusiasts for the Austrian School of Economics and exchanging views and opinions with them.

Indeed, it is concerning these aspects of the trip, that I am reminded of what Churchill once said: “If you love your job, you will never work again!”

Events

So, in late March I am speaking in Belgium

Having previously lived in Brussels between 2002 and 2005 I have long been aware of the wide range of radical liberals in Belgium. There are many excellent people and organisations there. There is the Ludwig Von Mises Institute Europe - www.vonmisesinstitute-europe.org - the Rothbard Institute - rothbard.be – and the Institut Economique Molinari - www.institutmolinari.org – to name but a tiny fraction.

It is with this in mind that I am delighted to be speaking on 24 March 2010 to the LVSV - www.lvsvgent.be - an excellent liberal student society at the University in Gent with more than 75 years of debating history behind them.

Apart from the good food, the gracious hospitality and the elegant architecture one always finds in this part of the world, I am really looking forward to explaining to their highly motivated students that central banks, coerced fractional reserve banking and nationalised monopoly currencies have nothing to do with the free market. Instead, they are statist engines of ruinous disaster.

Events

TCC’s Jamie Whyte Speaks at Oxford

My good friend Nick Cowen has just emailed me the video link to an excellent talk given recently at Oxford by TCC Advisory Board member Jamie Whyte. Called ‘The Financial Crisis: too much freedom or too much regulation?’ it is well worth your time.

Jamie Whyte – ‘The Financial Crisis: too much freedom or too much regulation?’ from oxford libertarian on Vimeo.