Economics

My talk on “Contemporary work in Austrian Economics”

Towards the end of September I gave a talk on “Contemporary work in Austrian Economics” for the Adam Smith Institute. It was part of the book launch for Eamon’s Primer, which I’m hoping everyone reading this site has now had chance to read. During the talk I made a number of references, and for those who wanted to follow up you can download my notes here.pdf

Indeed just before I spoke I realised that I was sat next to a speaker, and managed to make a half decent recording. You can download the audio here: Download Aje_contemporary_1009

In a nutshell:

The message I want to get across – especially to undergraduates considering an academic career exploring Austrian ideas – is this:

  • The amount of Austrian research and the number of Austrian researchers is growing exponentially
  • Good Austrian economists are not marginalised by the economics profession
  • There have been significant advances in our understanding of economics made recently

I do this with two lists – (A) signs that the Austrian-school is a fertile, growing, respectable part of the academic community; (B) specific pieces of work that have been published since 1994 that deepen our understanding of the science of economics.

I should add that Angel Martin emailed me to point out that the Ben Powell article I cite (Powell, Benjamin 2005. “State Development Planning: Did it Create an East Asian Miracle?” Review of Austrian Economics, Vol. 18. No. 3/4) is *not* about the East Asian crisis, but about the East Asian growth. Fair point.

For more of my lectures see here.

Economics

Dr Eamonn Butler, “Austrian Economics – A Primer”

From the Adam Smith InstituteFollowing his introduction to Mises, Dr Eamonn Butler has released his latest book, Austrian Economics – A Primer. I recommend it strongly if you want to grasp the fundamentals of the Austrian School of Economics as quickly as possible: at just 118 pages, this pamphlet can be tackled in one sitting.

With Keynesian-inspired policies which ‘spend your way out of recession’ clearly not working, the Austrian School provides a better explanation for recent events than more ‘mainstream’ thinking, whether Keynesian or Monetarist.

Over the course of the book, Eamonn explains the Austrian view of the importance of human agency, values and knowledge in shaping the markets, that is social cooperation. Vitally, it explains the origin of the present cycle of boom and bust: the government’s cheap credit policies, which encouraged people to borrow and discouraged saving, creating an artificial boom that inevitably ended.

For many years, the Austrian School of Economics has been sidelined, but it’s great to see that it is now rising in popularity as people become increasingly critical of the way governments and central banks have handled the economy.

Butler’s systematic and simple yet comprehensive primer is a great addition to a stable which also includes The Austrian School: Market Order and Entrepreneurial Creativity by Jesus Huerta de Soto. While Huerta de Soto’s first-class book is perhaps aimed at a more technical audience, Butler has made the Austrian School highly approachable. A strength shared by both works is to be measured and inclusive where “Austrians” can be confrontational.

Eamonn has made a superb job of outlining this important school of thought and his book should prove a great success. You can buy it here.

Economics

Austrian Economic eloquence at the IEA

Brian Micklethwait attended the Cobden Centre luncheon at the IEA on Friday, on The crisis and the Austrian theory of the business cycle, and was duly enthused by the speakers:

The invasion by Austrian Economics of the Institute of Economic Affairs continues apace, and at lunchtime today I attended this IEA event on that very timely subject staged by the Cobden Centre. The weather today has been so hot that since this meeting I could hardly stay alive and then when I had staggered home, awake, so don’t expect a long and detailed report of what was said. All I really want to say here, now, is that I was greatly impressed by the two speakers [Jörg Guido Hülsmann and Sean Corrigan], both of whom I photographed in action.

To see Brian’s photographs and to read the rest of his report, you can hop on over to my old alma mater, at Samizdata.net.

Economics

Time to Celebrate the Entrepreneur

Do you think it is very worrying that not one government policy encourages the entrepreneurs of the world to create wealth?

Without wealth creation we are doomed to a long slow decline in the productive capacity of the economy. We are doomed to the stagnating to slow growth economy that all the policies of our Great Leader, Gordon Brown, is inflicting upon us. It is all because he does not understand how wealth is created and the role of entrepreneurship in society. Most politicians are the same, I am afraid to say, with a few shining lights and notable exceptions.  This is desperately worrying for all of us.

How is Wealth Created?

I have said here on this site before http://www.cobdencentre.org/2009/09/can-the-manipulation-of-interest-rates-create-wealth/  “I would like you to absent the concept of money and consider a situation of barter. As a butcher, when I kill an animal, I may get for the sake of argument, 10 cuts of meat: this is my production. I only need 2 for my immediate consumption, so with the remaining 8 cuts, I trade with Andrew, a garment manufacturer, for some garments to keep me warm. I consume 2 cuts and I save 8 cuts in order to trade for other goods and services. I need to produce to consume: I need to save/invest to consume.

“If I wish to consume more of Andrew’s garments as I have a family to dress and keep warm, 8 cuts of meat may well not be enough to purchase these new needs and requirements of mine. At this point in time, I am faced with a choice, either my production has to increase so I can generate more cuts to exchange for other goods, or I accept my fate and stay where I am. I decide that I can invent a method of cutting up the parts quicker by using a sharper knife, thus I seek to invent the “steel” or knife sharpener that improves my productivity from generating 10 cuts in a day to 15. With these 5 extra cuts, I can get more garments.

“The problem is, that in order to get the steel built, I need to spend some of my time that would be making the 10 cuts. Thus, I have to save and forgo some consumption while I have the steel built. I also have to rely on my savings — those stored cuts of meat — that I have not consumed to keep me afloat. This is what an economist may mean when he says adding capital to an economy lengthens the structure of production. The steel in this example adds a stage to the capital structure of society, to make me more productive, so I can consume more things.

“To be clear, saving is the only thing that allows this to happen. In this example, my personal capital structure has gone from me with a knife in my hand consuming two cuts a day and exchanging 8 saved portions, to me and a knife and a steel to produce 15 cuts of which I consume 2 and exchange 13 saved cuts. Now Andrew will be doing the same, i.e. lengthening his structure of production to meet my new found desires for more goods. He will also have to save — i.e. forgo consumption — to invest with the sustenance that savings gives him, to become more “capitalistic” or capital intensive in his production structure, to meet my demand.”

In summary, during the passage of time, only an act of saving to invest in a longer capitalistic method of production can lead to more goods and services being produced and consumed. No amount of creating money out of thin air creates more goods and services.

The Austrian School Role of the Entrepreneur in Economics

Humans Act

One of the great contributions of Ludwig von Mises to our understanding of the world, in his book ‘Human Action’ is that humans act and they act purposefully to satisfy their most urgent needs and requirements. Absent action and you would not have a moving human society, but a static world with no existence at all. We rank our most immediate preferences first and our most remote preferences last, thus we always have a downward sloping demand curve for things.

Sub Categories of Action: the Entrepreneur

All men act, they are in economic theory either an entrepreneur, a capitalist, a landowner, a worker or a consumer. These are ideal types, ideal styles. The reality is that we are all a combination of more than one of the above.

In the real world everybody is an entrepreneur except the children and elderly we look after, and wards of state that we pay in various forms to do nothing, such as the unemployed and those on incapacity benefit.

Israel Kirzner shows us in his books ‘Competition and Entrepreneurship’ and also in ‘Perception, Opportunity, and Profit’, how the spontaneous discovery of new opportunities by alert individuals is a defining characteristic of entrepreneurship. For example, a man who is more alert than another to satisfying the most urgent needs and requirements of other men, such as Bill Gates in inventing Microsoft and its worldwide and world changing software is rewarded by his fellow consumer entrepreneurs more so than the man who comes and fixes the boiler as he is providing a more valuable and needed service. Gates’s unique ability over the years to be alert to the potential opportunity, to think, to create to make happen, makes him the richest man in the world.

The Economy as Dynamic Creative Process

De Soto, in his books ‘The Theory of Dynamic Efficiency’ and ‘The Austrian School, Market Order and Entrepreneurial Creativity’ shows us that as the economy is predicated by acting man seeking ways to satisfy his most urgent needs and requirements first, and with limited resources, everything in politics should be geared to letting the full creative talents of the most humble entrepreneur to the giants on entrepreneurship flourish.  Past Popes such as John Paul the II and Leo XIII, in ‘Centesimus Annus’ and ‘Rerun Novarum’ have been wonderful in expressing the moral ethic of human being s able to express our own creativity unhindered so long as we hinder no one else.

To our current political class, astonishingly, it is never about creating, but about distributing: X, the group of more deserving persons, is going to get Y taken from them, and it will be promptly redistributed to the less deserving class. In most cases the less deserving class is the successful entrepreneur who has satisfied the most urgent needs of consumers the most and been rewarded for doing so by his consumers!

How the Political Class Understands Economics: the Neo-classical Way

Lord Lionel Robbins, a great early Austrian  School economist from the LSE, sadly left us with a very negative legacy concerning entrepreneurship in his otherwise exceptional book, ‘An Essay on The Nature and Significance of Economic Science’. My copy is online here, http://mises.org/books/robbinsessay2.pdf    This would be the starting point marking when economics is described as the science which studies the utilisation of scare resources which may be put to alternative uses in order to satisfy human needs.  So the economic problem is a technical one of allocation.

This contrasts with the real world creative dynamic actors who are constantly alert to creating new means to satisfy new ends by using all their creative talents and those of others they can muster in order to satisfy the largest number of ends. This is entrepreneurship as a discovery process. No economics is about choosing between competing uses to satisfy set ends.

In the Neoclassical world – and we must remember the School of Keynes and Friedman, the Keynesians and the Monetarist  are but subsections of the Neoclassical School – it is impossible for there to be pure entrepreneurial profit or genuine discovery, as they are enclosed in a world where there is call for intervention in the distribution of scarce resources. Technical allocation is the height of the Neoclassical Mission. The man who ‘discovers’ the wheel, the internal combustion engine, the computer etc are all acts of great creativity and are examples of where pure entrepreneurial profit is generated. To the technician/administrator/bureaucrat/resource allocator of the Neoclassical School, there is no role for this, but when it does happen, lo and behold there is a role of how to technically allocate its benefits!

The Role of Knowledge and Information

I was fortunate to study under Dr Robert Orr at the LSE who was a protégé of the outstanding political philosopher, Michael Oakeshott. I will never forget my first introduction to his 1962 classic book, ‘Rationalism in Politics’, where Oakeshott cleverly distinguished between “practical knowledge” and “scientific knowledge.” The former he describes as the dispersed know-how that we all have that allows us to do things that cannot be formalised, like the tacit knowledge a cook has when he/she cooks a fantastic dinner. Putting the food together in various combinations and heating for various times are, after all, simple acts that could be described in a very formulaic fashion.  But how many of us have that practical, unquantifiable knowledge to cook an outstanding dinner? The former, formulaic knowledge,  is the scientific knowledge or technical knowledge that we can formalise such as the knowledge of science itself. The study of entrepreneurship or economics in general is about the study of which entrepreneurs use this practical knowledge to bring about co- ordination and more goods and services by doing more things to satisfy more people. Scientific knowledge may boost this process as entrepreneurs exploit the information that the scientific knowledge produces. The danger is when the people who study economics and the application of entrepreneurship or the use of this dispersed practical knowledge or know how think they can scientifically manage it.

Harmony / Coordination and not the Creative Destruction of Schumpeter

Technical direction by the ‘enlightened’ entrenched administrators who dominate large parts of our lives is no match for the co-ordinating forces of entrepreneurship. The price mechanism throws up information that suggests opportunities to alert entrepreneurs to supply goods and services or solutions to satisfy peoples’ most urgent needs. This co-ordination can never be facilitated by administrators. Each time a profit opportunity is found and then satisfied, a creative and co-ordinating act has happened. Entrepreneurship is coordination. Each act of entrepreneurship in fact smoothes out dis-co-ordination in society. It is the most civilising act. This is very different to the creative destruction of Joseph Schumpeter who, in ‘Capitalism , Socialism and Democracy’ says that entrepreneurs enter established industries that start to exercise some monopoly power, thus allowing a smaller, nimbler competitor to enter and value-destruct and then value re-create something new and better.  Schumpeter, unlike his Austrian contemporary, Mises, viewed booms and busts to be caused by innovation and not by excessive credit creation.

The Austrian Approach

So for the Austrian, we all act to satisfy our ends.  Some do it better than others, some do it to many others, and these latter entrepreneurs are, in truth, the dynamic, creative, co-ordinating and above all harmonious drivers of the economy and facilitators of a peaceful society. This is in direct contrast with the homo oeconomicus of Robbins and the Neoclassical School, whose modern members are Keynesians and Monetarists. Resource allocation between competing needs is the name of their game.

They conflate scientific knowledge with the practical. This allows them to advocate constant spending by a thing they describe as a third party: Government. Government is meant to inject new money into the economy to get us all moving again. There is a horrible inevitability here: like a Greek tragedy, it is played out on epic proportions. There is no such thing as a government standing above and separate from us that can stimulate us. The government can only take from one section of the population and give to other sections of the population. When they spend money, they are spending the money you would have spent.  The positive government spending multiplier is exactly negated by the negative spending multiplier from where the government has extracted  the money in the first place. The net effect is zero extra spending. However.  It does not stop there.  For a great dis-co-ordination in the practical knowledge of people will take place when a government spends as the entrepreneurs will now be confused as to which activity in the economy will produce a sustainable outcome. Which bits of price information are driven by the most urgent needs of consumers that needs satisfying? Which are driven by the technical director of some government department directing who he thinks – or his political master thinks – the given set of resources should be allocated?

We are told we should print more money. I tell no lie, I witnessed one economist, Roger Bootle, see here http://www.cobdencentre.org/2010/02/policy-exchange-and-the-near-consensus-on-the-merits-of-qe/  say we should, if need be, print money indefinitely until people knew we were so serious that we would not allow a deflation! He equates a growing money supply with more wealth. But a growing money supply without more goods and services means a lowering of each money unit’s purchasing power! This has nothing whatsoever to do with the creation of wealth, as I have demonstrated above. Both endless spending and endless printing of money are the policies of the mystic and witch doctor!

In conclusion,the correct and urgent policy for the political class must be to remove all restrictions on the ability of each person to use their best entrepreneurial endeavours.  Each person can then take advantage of the practical knowledge that is out there and create, ex novo, new combinations of the factors of production to produce new things. Abolish all laws that prevent and hamper business unnecessarily; pro-union legislation; employment law excesses; presumption of guilt by you, the employer, for anything your staff does, thus absenting you from any individual responsibility. Stop paying the people who abuse the benefit system, who form the massive, larger than the army size workforce we have idle on unemployment and or incapacity benefit. Stop wasting resources going to war. Stop printing money and creating confusion as it is harder for an entrepreneur now more than ever to distinguish between what is or is not a bubble supported activity that is never going to be sustainable. This latter disruption in the co-ordinating ability of entrepreneurs to bring about economic harmony is the worst part of the legacy that this current government will gift the next. 

Until they understand the nature of entrepreneurship, we are in for a prolonged and rough recession.

Economics

Peter Schiff, the Austrian School Economist who Predicted the Great Meltdown

Dear Reader,

For our largely UK based audience, you may or may not have heard of Peter Schiff, investor and Austrian School economist. We are told by the political class and the ranks of their economist spin merchants that nobody could have predicted the crash, it was all out of our control, it was worldwide unstable capitalism imploding, that will need more regulation by us, it was nothing to do with us honest guv!

Peter was on record with a different view. His You Tube record is sensational but of course a great shame on all those who did not listen.

See also these You Tube clips.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2I0QN-FYkpw

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z0YTY5TWtmU&feature=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tZaHNeNgrcI

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nbvL4u-MrVM&feature=related

This is a fantastic in depth talk Peter gave last year to Mises Institute.

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=3915119166991168859#

I hope you enjoy!

Economics

Ron Paul predicts a further crisis

Ron Paul shows that Austrian economics can be popular in the mainstream media and predicts a currency crisis.

Economics

Thrifty families accused of prolonging the recession – Times Online

Via Thrifty families accused of prolonging the recession – Times Online, yet more crass Keynesianism:

Anxious families are repaying debts instead of spending in the shops, amid concern over the uncertain economic outlook. The share of income saved in banks and building societies has risen to its highest level in more than a decade, heightening fears that faltering consumer demand could prolong the recession.

But see also Correction, Mr. Bernanke:

It is real savings that fund economic activity. The increase in the pool of real savings is the key behind sustained real economic growth.

These two authors make fundamentally different diagnoses and policy prescriptions because economics is not a positive applied science comparable to, say, physics. There are at least four schools of economic thinking, as Jeffey Tucker explains, but only one school predicted the bust.

This conflict over whether saving promotes recovery really matters: if the wrong side win and policy makers take heed, the recession will be deeper and longer than necessary.

Further reading

Economics

Predicting the bust

Via FT.com | Arena | What is the point of economists? :

“Why did no one see the crisis coming?” Queen Elizabeth asked last year. “A failure of the collective imagination of many bright people” who were all “doing their job properly on its own merit”, was the answer many of those bright people gave in a letter to the Queen last week.

However, via Fred Foldvary, American Journal of Economics and Sociology 56(4): 521-41, quote at p. 538:

the next major bust, if there is no major interruption such as a global war, will be around 2008.

The year? 1997.

See also Peter Schiff, 2006-2007:

Further Reading

Economics

Now it’s looking like V for victory over recession – Times Online

Capital-based macroeconomicsResponding to an article in The Times, Steven Baker indicates the origins of our views on the economic situation and its causes, of our prospects and of the best route to sustainable prosperity.

For the Times, Jim O’Neill, Chief Economist at Goldman Sachs, writes:

Based on the evidence I have seen this month, it looks as though the world moved out of recession in the second quarter. When we see the evidence for this, in the third-quarter data, it is likely that many areas will have returned to close to trend growth.

He goes on to explain the emotional and subjective criticism he has received in response to previous articles, the evidence and his optimistic outlook for the world economy, concluding:

Since March, close to the time that developed stock markets bottomed, our GLI has shown a vigorous bounce and, indeed, for the past two months the monthly increases have been the sharpest we can find. The chart of the monthly changes, as you can see, looks pretty much like a V, not a W. Right now, it suggests a much stronger bounce in the world in the next six months than consensus and, along with other data, is why in our latest forecasts we predict that world GDP will recover by 4 per cent in 2010. This will include the UK because, despite all its challenges, it is an economy small and open enough to be greatly influenced by the rest of the world.

Now, we have already explained why the FTSE is rising, the cause of the appearance of prosperity (also Corrigan) and that uninterrupted growth in the stock market never indicates favourable economic conditions. We have shown that our understanding of the nature of money produces a measure which, in contrast to the Bank of England’s M4, correlates to economic activity. We have introduced a better measure of private prosperity than GDP. We have indicated here and here alternative prognoses for the global economy. Our primer introduces our supporting literature.

Mr O’Neil is a senior economist and Goldman Sachs makes a great deal of money. So why do we disagree?

There are three important schools of economic thought: Keynesian, Monetarist and Austrian1. We follow the Austrian School. In contrast to the others, it has a robust capital theory and an understanding of the interest rate as the price which coordinates the economy across time. Unfortunately, Mr O’Neill’s economic thinking causes him to look at the immediate empirical evidence and make pronouncements which, while superficially justified, lack a deep theoretical understanding of the situation, that is, the distortions in the capital structure of production.

Of course, this is not to assert that money cannot be made by bankers in the short term under the present system. The question is whether that system of thinking can explain our predicament and the best route out.

Continue reading “Now it’s looking like V for victory over recession – Times Online”

  1. Regrettably, echoes of Marxist economic thinking still reverberate. []