Economics

Why all Banks are Insolvent

Why Even the Best Banks are Insolvent and Inherently Dishonest

We are told that Barclays is a good bank and it did well not to take the taxpayers shilling. We are told that it has recovered and is prospering and this indeed is a sign of the economic recovery.

Part of the mission of the Honest Money Movement is to explore and expose these fallacies.

Banks only exist with entrenched legal and accountancy privilege. Privilege for all sectors of the political spectrum is a bad thing. Trade Union privilege to operate  a closed shop cuts back on employment and price gouges the customers who buy the goods that the closed shop workers produce. A group of countries who restrict the price of say oil will push up the price of oil and gouge their customers and so on and so forth. All privilege is bad.

Contrast Normal Commercial Activity…

Any business in this country from the plumber to BP will have current creditors, those people it owes money to such as suppliers and current debtors, those people who owe it money for the goods and services sold. It is a legal offense to not pay your assets and your liabilities as and when they fall due. Indeed as a company director you become personally liable should you trade in this position whilst you are insolvent.

…With That of a Bank

A bank has current creditors: on the whole, these are people like you and me who have our salaries or savings paid or deposited into our accounts on our behalf. We do not actually “own our money” that is deposited in the bank. The bank does.

This may come as a surprise to you. However this is a very well established point of law. Since 1811 in Carr v Carr, this has been the case. So you and I are the current creditors to the bank i.e. we are owed money by the bank. In fact your bank statement is just an IOU from the bank acknowledging that it owes you however much it says on the statement on demand.

The assets of the bank are those people to whom the bank has lent its (formerly your) money to i.e. all the borrowers of loans. As has been so clearly displayed during this crisis, they have lent their money out (formerly yours) over 33 times on average to borrowers. I explain the money credit creation multiplier here for a refresher on understanding this process. So when more than 1 of 33 of us wish to withdraw our money that is on demand, the bank can not pay it back as it does not have it.

I enclose a link to the balance sheet of the UK’s largest company, BP here here.   Page 106 has the balance sheet.

Non-current assets £161,854M
Current assets £66,384M
Total Assets £228,238M
Current liabilities £69,793M
Non Current liabilities £136,129M
Net Assets £92,109M

This would suggest that BP has current liabilities marginally greater than their current assets. No doubt the timing of the payment to suppliers is carefully balanced off otherwise their auditors could not sign off the accounts if they thought the company could not pay off its assets as and when they fall due.

Contrast this with the Barclays Bank full year 2009 results  shown on this spreadsheet.

See tab 4 where we have the consolidated balance sheet.  There are just assets and liabilities and there is not a distinction in their accounts between current liabilities i.e. your and my money that has been deposited that is on demand now and a long term liability such as a mortgage to pay off a loan on some property they may occupy etc over a long period of time. There is £322 billion of money on deposit in current creditors that could be withdrawn “on demand” as that is what the bank tells you that you can do with it. Indeed you only deposit it that way because you need to make sure payments happen on demand. They have no requirement to provide you with the ability to make this happen despite the fact that you may have deposited money there!

So unlike BP and any commercial business from the lowest one man band plumber to the mighty BP, who have to account for keeping payments set aside to cover their current liabilities, a bank is not required to. Indeed, it is specifically allowed not to by accounting law and legal privilege under law. If the deposit base of Barclays wanted what it thought was “its” money back i.e. it wanted the £322 billion redeemed into cash or taken out of the bank and moved to another, then as there is no corresponding current asset to pay for this and only assets that have long term payment implications, it would have to suspend redemptions as North Rock did and hope people would wait until it could try to sell some of its long term assets or collect in its loans. In reality, this would be a run on a bank. Barclays by its very nature is inherently insolvent and can only exist by this accounting / legal privilege that does not apply to any other non bank business in the UK!

One of the first things you will ever learn in a law of contract course is that an agreement is reached between parties and a contract established when an offer is accepted with a mirror image of understanding , from the Latin “pacta sunt servanda” or agreements must be kept. So it would strike me that as the vast majority of people think that they deposit their money and it remains their money in a bank and that the law and accounting standards say otherwise, there is a very good argument that there is not a contract in place between any depositor and bank. Certainly as most depositors also want easy access.

I commissioned a survey for the Cobden Centre in Oct 2009 with ICM over 2,000 people. 74% of people think that they are the legal owner of the money in their current account rather than the bank. Paradoxically 61% know that their money is lent out even though 67% want convenient (now) on demand access. The full results of this survey will be published shortly in another paper.

Now we can understand how the banks have the biggest salaries, the biggest bonuses , the biggest offices, the most plush terms and conditions of employment and so on and so forth. If you do not have to provide for your creditors then you can use their money to do what you like with and this is what happens!

Just to give you an idea what this would mean for me in my company Seafood Holdings Ltd if I was allowed to do what the banks are allowed to do. As of December 2009, I had trade current creditors of £8.276m against trade debtors of £12.275m. If I was a bank, I could pick up the full £8.276m and pay a dividend or bonus and still be lawful. I could build a megalomaniac size corporate head office and stick a gold plated statue with me dressed in a Roman Caesar like uniform to please my demented ego! I could behave like the worst most vulgar of City bankers.

We must always remember their key service other than the safe keeping of our money is to act as an intermediary between saver and borrower. This is “Captain Mannering” style boring banking. Like and estate agent who mediates between buyer and seller of houses, he has a High Street presence like most providing a consumer service. Places like the City of London / Canary Wharf  and Wall Street etc can only exist as they do today on this legal privilege and on the welfare state of credit whereby we allow them to exist at the tax payers’ expense.

Economics

More on Banking and the Barclays 2009 Results

Some of my City friends who work in banking have had a look at the 2009 Barclays balance sheet and made comment on how the profits are made up.

They report to me that the one off profit from the disposal of BGI to  Blackrock was £6.3bn.  Add that to the trading profit of £7bn and you get 130% of the total profit of this “bank.”

Accounting like this is like Manchester United selling top player Ronaldo in the last financial year for £80 million when the average sale of a player in the football world produces only £1 – £5 million and kidding themselves that this is a result of them trading profitably in a sustainable way.  It seems unlikely that shareholders in this football club will be relying on a spectacular cash event occurring each year as a regular occurrence.  Therefore, many analysts are inclined to deduct from the profits such one off events to get a better view of predictable stable cashflow. (see tab 18 of the spreadsheet previously mentioned in yesterdays article and downloaded from here, http://group.barclays.com/Investor-Relations/Financial-results-and-publications/Results-announcements ).

Further, I’m told that a brief review of the numbers indicates that £7bn of the £10.2bn profits are expressed as “trading income” (last year £1.3bn).

I would pose three questions:

a)      What if the markets had gone the other way? Would we be told these are not real cash losses?

b)      How many politicians that want Glass Steagall separation of retail banking from casino banking will criticise them?

The political class want both the cake and to eat it, or they are just ignorant.

They no doubt are content that 74% of the TOTAL ASSETS of Barclays sit in Barclays Capital – the investment banking or casino arm..

c)         Let’s have a look at bonuses – having slashed cost income ratios from 76% q4 08 to 55% q1 09, ratio is now back up at 64% q4 09. Is this what the political class meant when they wanted to see a more equitable salary to profit ratio?

Let us also consider the consequences of mark to market accounting FOR P&L PROFITS.  The wisdom of MTM for balance sheet and transparency is not in dispute, but in a government bailout environment, the profit and loss accounts of banks is boosted artificially by the very bailout itself.  The effect of interest rates being forced down from 5% to 0.5%  artificially boosts the mark to market value of any unhedged long term assets on trading book. I urge you to think about what imputed capital value you have on an income stream today with interest rates at 0.5% as against an interest rate of say 5%, they work in inverse proportion i.e. the lower the rate the higher the capital value. A property generating rent of £1,000 per week, should be multiplied by 200 times to get its capital value or the value of its income stream. A little bit Alice in Wonderland I am sure you will agree.

Bonuses should not be paid on these numbers because the “profits” are unrealised, and will turn to huge losses if interest rates go up as they are still unhedged, remember! The bankers are making sure they can take a bonus on 30 years implied profits today in this low welfare state of credit environment with you and me, aka the taxpayer paying for it.

Let me explain in another way.  MTM accounting takes a payment due in the future, say £100 after 1 year, and “discounts this by the interest rate to value the payment today taking into account the delay and the cost of money.  So if rates are 5% in this simple example then the MTM value today is a shade over £95, since £95 invested at 5% for 1 year will produce about £100.  If the interest rate is 0%, then the MTM value is £100.  Therefore, the reduction in interest rates increases the MTM value of payments due in the future..

I question the long term value to profits of:

1)         buying alphabet soup bombed out CLOs CDOs, CDO squared structures and funding them at 0.5% courtesy of the taxpayer via the Band of England Discount Window.

The Discount Window remember is being used as the lender of last resort in the banking system and has been very active since the October 2008 crash with us the taxpayer subsidizing all of this!

2)         Present valuing (ie booking to p&l as if realised, earned income today) under synthetic (credit default swap) structures of say 30 year loan margins as day 1 profits.

For a more detailed explanation see Gordon Kerr’s presentation March 2nd at the European Parliament reported on this site as  “Iceland and the Western Banking System

Allister Heath (City AM) further notes that the accounts declare that cost of capital is 12% but return on capital employed is 8% – “shocking – makes no sense” is the comment.

Surely is not Barclays Bank effectively operating as a hedge fund with a modest high street retail bank attached?

I have only the following comment to make on this.  If Barclays wants to list in the Caymans and invite me to invest in its shares, that is capitalism operating perfectly in a free market.

Where the Cobden Centre takes issue with this is the operation of the free market being distorted by taxpayer intervention.  It is surely unacceptable for the taxpayer to be asked to:

a) underwrite the solvency of this hedge fund,

b) fund it through the Bank of England’s discount window, and

c) pay its employees bonuses based on asset valuations that not even a hedge fund at the racier end would attempt to classify as profits.

Any hedge fund with a cost of capital of 12% and a return on capital of 8% would be asking its “partners” (ie employees) to inject more money to evidence commitment or  ‘skin in the game’…as the hedgies in Mayfair term it.

So much for the new found stability of our banking system. Our money system continues to get more dishonest every day.