Press

Seafood Holdings 12th in Fast Track 100 Buy Out League

Our Founder and Chairman’s fish supply company, Seafood Holdings, came 12th in the weekend’s Sunday Times Fast Track 100 Buy Out League profits table:

Although the results show 2008 and not 2009, the continuing dedication to sound entrepreneurship that drives our Chairman continues apace and we wish Toby all the best in his endeavours.

Economics

FT.com – Ofgem urges shake-up of energy market

Via FT.com, Ofgem urges a shake-up of the energy market,

Sweeping reforms of the UK’s energy market must be brought in urgently to protect energy supplies, reduce greenhouse gas emissions and deliver the £200bn investment needed in the power sector, the energy regulator said on Wednesday.

Ofgem said options for reform would include placing more stringent legal obligations on energy suppliers, and “improved market signals”, which could include a higher price on carbon dioxide emissions. More drastic options could include a centralised renewables market and a central buyer of energy for the whole of the UK.

Which all seems very well, until you realise that this is the fruit of an ideological aversion to the free mutual cooperation of individuals and corporations. Ofgem apparently tell us, “It would mean taking away the market’s role in delivering that investment.”

We need to make our minds up about whether planned or free economies can provide us with the means of our survival and prosperity. History’s answer is clear: planned economies cause misery and then collapse.

Further reading

Economics

Bastiat’s Iceberg: A Sean Corrigan Masterpiece for Christmas

Sean Corrigan of Diapason Commodities Management packs more sound applied economics into this report than ever: Toby Baxendale provides a commentary. This is a great Christmas read for us all: download the report here.

Bastiat's Iceberg

Bastiat's Iceberg

On the Errors of GDP Accounting

  • For the USA economy, Corrigan shows the utter futility of using the conventional GDP measure. The same applies for any of the OECD countries who use the same measure.
  • Business spending in 2006 in the USA was $31 trillion vs a GDP of $13.4 trillion.
  • Businesses were spending $4.30 for every $1 spend on personal consumption.
  • Policy makers from around the world, if any of you are reading this article, please take note of the significance of this fact!
  • This focuses on something that all Austrian economists know: the desire by the mainstream economists is not to double-count. In the end, they do not count much at all!
  • As a catering fish monger myself, I buy fish off farms, boats and auctions around the world. I cut and prepare the fish and send it to my customers, the hotels and restaurants of the UK. Yet none of my spending exists in the GDP figures! My wealth and that of my suppliers does not exist as far as the authorities are concerned. I only wish that I could get the tax man to take this view like his economist colleagues in the Revenue Department!
  • I had this discussion with a member of the MPC some months ago: how if my salmon was bought at the fish farm for £1 per kg and we put a £1 mark-up on after cutting it up and the end user put a £1 mark up on, it is double counting as far as he was concerned. He reasoned that to count all of the stages of production when it only finally gets sold for £3 would be an overstatement as the price of the inputs is in the final price of £3. They miss out the significance that I and my supplier have our profit to the spend in the wider economy after we have spent our companies’ resources on continuing investment and consumption. This is all real activity! This is the danger of having statisticians running the economy.
  • All that matters, we are told, is that GDP is composed of 70% of final consumption expenditure. In reality, the final consumption element is more like a quarter of real GDP, once the production sector is included.
  • As I have always said, the health of the production sector is driven by its ability to invest in replacement capital to make more efficient production techniques, to supply more goods and services to people at better prices and with better service levels. This is the essence of entrepreneurship, the essence of wealth creation and the essence of the recovery: magic tricks perpetrated by the economic witch doctors, who wish to pursue a policy of QE or similar, will only consume capital and not replace it with some better means of production.

Continue reading “Bastiat’s Iceberg: A Sean Corrigan Masterpiece for Christmas”

Economics

Fed signals pullback in liquidity supports

Via FT.com / US / Economy & Fed – Fed signals pullback in liquidity supports, we learn:

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday upgraded its assessment of the US economy and highlighted its intention to shut down most of its crisis-fighting liquidity facilities in early 2010.

And consequently:

Stocks eased slightly after the Fed statement, while the yield curve in the bond market steepened.


Which brings us on to Roger Koppl’s Big Players and the Economic Theory of Expectations.

I am indebted to Cobden Centre supporter Bruno Prior for introducing me to Koppl’s work which extends the tradition of Ludwig von Mises, Friedrich Hayek and others, unusually, applying empirical methods to demonstrate the application of the theory.

Koppl demonstrates, with extensive reference to other scholars, that investment and all other economic actions depend on “subjective” expectations. He then presents a theory of expectations which assumes people interpret their situations in unpredictable ways. This theory includes a theory of “Big Players”:

Big Players are privileged actors who disrupt markets. A Big Player has three defining characteristics. He is big in the sense that his actions influence the market under study. He is insensitive to the discipline of profit and loss. He is arbitrary in the sense that his actions depend on discretion rather than any set of rules. Big Players have power and use it.

We learn that Big Players reduce the reliability of expectations, thereby disrupting markets. They encourage herding and produce perverse effects on entrepreneurship: traders must pay attention to the Big Player and not the fundamentals.

And so we find today, for example, the markets moving in response to the Fed not the realities of the economy…

Economics

The Exodus of the Business Community

Here’s a sobering thought. If you are due to pay 50% income-tax in the new tax year, do not be fooled: it will come closer to 80% when you add on a few mandatory extras such as the full 17.5% VAT on most of your spending coupled with the 12.8% National Insurance paid by your employer on your behalf. (I have ignored a few allowances – but also the ‘stealth taxes’ pulling back on the other side such as Stamp Duty, Airport Tax, Car Tax, Tax on fuel … it just goes on and on.)

Think about this number for a moment. It means that for 80% of the year you will be working hard for the state and 20% for you and your family plus any philanthropic causes you contribute to. This means you will be working from the 1st of January to the end of September for the State. It won’t be until towards the end of September in to October, November and December that you will truly be working for yourself in any sense.

This is a subtle and pernicious form of modern day slavery, for sure.

Alistair Darling, our hapless Chancellor, tells us that those with the biggest and broadest shoulders should share the largest burden of funding the deficit that his Government – and only his Government – have created over the last ten years.

I am reminded of Ayn Rand’s great novel published in ……. Atlas Shrugged, Part 3, Chapter 7. Here is John Galt speaking:

If you saw Atlas, the giant who holds the world on his shoulders, if you saw that he stood, blood running down his chest, his knees buckling, his arms trembling but still trying to hold the world aloft with the last of his strength, and the greater his effort the heavier the world bore down on his shoulders — what would you tell him to do? To Shrug.

Ayn Rand’s prophetic warning – that it is the businessmen of the world who create the wealth in the first place, which allows what a ‘statist’ like Darling wishes to do to advance his Party’s vision of social progress – will, one day, if pushed far enough, cause this country’s wealth creators to just shrug their shoulders and move on and away. At worst, what will be left is a society bereft of those who actually make money – or such a diminishing pool that the state will implode, consuming itself to death with no new wealth to replenish it.

In Capitalism: The Unknown Ideal, Rand reminds us:

Businessmen are the one group that distinguishes capitalism and the American way of life from the totalitarian statism that is swallowing the rest of the world. All the other social groups – workers, farmers, professional men, scientists, soldiers – exist under dictatorships, even though they exist in chains, in terror, in misery, and in progressive self-destruction. But there is no such group as businessmen under a dictatorship. Their place is taken by armed thugs: by bureaucrats and commissars. Businessmen are the symbol of a free society – the symbol of America.

Well, the UK State has run out of money. It will borrow £200 billion next year to pay its ever-ballooning payroll. Meanwhile we, here in the UK, are relying on the good will of our lenders to bankroll our state workers on a week-by-week basis. Yes, the UK is existing on a hand to mouth basis only. This is what it means to have a £200 billion deficit to fund. The government takes £4 in tax and spend £5 on its programs. It does not have the political courage to take immediate efforts to make this £4 in and £4 out, as any prudent family must budget.

When human beings began to peacefully exchange goods and services, civilised society was created. Money is the medium that facilitates this exchange to our satisfaction. Society, and its closely associated derivative, money, which facilitates peaceful exchange, is arguably the greatest invention of mankind. All other things flow from the basic functions of exchange being enabled to be fulfilled: it is, quite simply, this that has lifted us up from primitive existence. We should be glorifying those, like Ayn Rand’s fictional John Galt, who – far from being labelled fat cats – are a shining beacon of hope in desperate times. Rand goes further:

“So you think that money is the root of all evil?” [leaving it aside that this is a common misquote: St Paul suggests that the love of money is the root of evil, a distinction lost to those who damn the rich out of hand.] “Have you ever asked what is the root of money?” continues Rand. “Money is a tool of exchange, which can’t exist unless there are goods produced and men able to produce them. Money is the material shape of the principle that men who wish to deal with one another must deal by trade and give value for value. Money is not the tool of the moochers, who claim your product by tears or of the looters, who take it from you by force. Money is made possible only by the men who produce. Is this what you consider evil?

“Until and unless you discover that money is the root of all good, you ask for your own destruction. When money ceases to become the means by which men deal with one another, then men become the tools of other men. Blood, whips and guns–or dollars. Take your choice–there is no other.”

A modern day John Galt is none other than Michael Spencer, who I have the good fortune of knowing. He is the billionaire founder of ICAP, the largest inter deal broker on the planet. He employs 4,500 people, transacts £1.4 trillion of trades per day, has 50 offices world wide. His charity day at the office raises half of he total amount that the whole BBC Children in Need raises. Glory to the forces of free market capitalism, that most potent wealth creating force known to mankind.

Michael Spencer was interviewed by the Daily Telegraph on the 5th of December and said: “If the Conservatives are not elected and if Labour continue to increase taxes as they probably will then, regrettably, we would presumably have to reconsider moving domicile.”

The prospect of working 80% of the year for the State, like the Titan Atlas holding up the world is becoming too much for the likes of Spencer. We are approaching the tipping point. We need our Spencers and the whole army of entrepreneurs more so now then ever to create the wealth to get us out of the Labour Party induced mess we are in today.

Economics

Jamie Murray Wells on entrepreneurship

Via ConservativeHome, excellent comment from Jamie Murray Wells, founder and Executive Chairman of Glasses Direct, the world’s largest online retailer of prescription glasses:

A rich entrepreneurial spirit flows through Britain. Thousands of new businesses are successfully established here each year. But the response this Government is proposing to our current economic mess will certainly not benefit the entrepreneurs of tomorrow.

Entrepreneurs are job creators and a fiscal environment that supports entrepreneurial activity is good for the whole UK economy, but the tax rises Gordon Brown says he needs to fund the stimulus and fend off rising unemployment, will in fact do the opposite. And while Brown has been increasing the public sector workforce at the expense of private sector jobs, Mandelson has been renewing the old Labour habit of using taxpayers' money to “pick winners“. The historical record of that policy is disastrous.

Economics

FT.com – “Beware of errors in output gap data”

FT.com Output GapEntrepreneur and economist Toby Baxendale responds to warnings over errors in output gap data by explaining that there is no output gap, only lost capacity to produce goods no one can afford once cheap credit comes to an end.

Via FT.com / FTfm / Columnists – Beware of errors in output gap data:

Massive fiscal deficits and unorthodox monetary policies have left many market participants worried that the Federal Reserve will unleash the inflation genie at some stage. Fed chairman Ben Bernanke insists that he is committed to price stability and has the means to achieve it. That may well be so. What’s less clear is whether Helicopter Ben, or anyone else at the Fed, will know exactly when to employ his anti-inflationary toolkit.

Rather, the Fed will likely remain passive until the economy is running near full capacity, or what economists call the “output gap” has narrowed. This sounds sensible. After all, inflation comes about when too much money chases too few goods and services, causing the economy to overheat.The trouble is that the track record of economists measuring the output gap in real time is rather patchy, to say the least.

In the Financial Times of August the 3rd, Edward Chancellor warns us we should not assume, just because we have high unemployment and idle capacity in factories, that we have spare capacity which can be employed before inflationary pressures start to work their way though the economy. Chancellor warns that economists’ track record of measuring the output gap is “rather patchy”. The conventional wisdom is that if we have idle resources, we must have spare capacity which will be employed without any price pressure on the economy when demand starts to rocket.

Conventional wisdom reasons further that one can create money out of thin air — “Quantitive Easing” or “Open Market Operations” by the central bank to stimulate demand — and that new money will not be inflationary, if the circumstances are right. The massive growth on central banks balance sheets that is potentially inflationary would be un-wound before any inflation emerged by placing bonds back in the market.

Thus the central banks around the world would manipulate the economy back to health like magic!

Continue reading “FT.com – “Beware of errors in output gap data””