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Colin Lloyd

Colin Lloyd

Colin has worked in the financial and commodity markets since 1981. He started his career in physical commodities moving on to a futures and options brokerage in 1987. Here he focused on servicing bank proprietary traders, global macro and relative-value fixed income hedge funds together with managed futures advisors. He was also instrumental in the development of interest rate and credit default swaps businesses. In December 2013 he launched a macroeconomic newsletter – In the Long Run – focussing on macroeconomics and financial markets. He has recently became a director of AAIN - Asian Alternative Investments Network – a non-profit industry group with which he has been involved since its inception in 2007.

Debasing the Baseless – Modern Monetary Theory
Economics13 May 19<13 May 19

Debasing the Baseless – Modern Monetary Theory

  Populist politicians are turning to Modern Monetary Theory Fiscal stimulus has not led to significant inflation during the last decade MMT is too…

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Global Real Estate – Has the tide begun to recede?
Economics3 May 19<28 April 19

Global Real Estate – Has the tide begun to recede?

  Despite the fourth quarter shakeout in stocks, real estate values keep rising Financial conditions remain key, especially in a low rate environment Isolated…

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China in transition – From manufacturer to consumer
Economics5 April 19<31 March 19

China in transition – From manufacturer to consumer

  China is evolving from a current account surplus to deficit country Increased domestic consumption and dis-saving by an ageing population drives the trend…

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Capital Flows – is a reckoning nigh?
Economics18 March 19<17 March 19

Capital Flows – is a reckoning nigh?

  Borrowing in Euros continues to rise even as the rate of US borrowing slows The BIS has identified an Expansionary Lower Bound for…

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Central bank balance sheet reductions – will anyone follow the Fed?
Economics22 February 19<17 February 19

Central bank balance sheet reductions – will anyone follow the Fed?

  The next wave of QE will be different, credit spreads will be controlled The Federal Reserve may continue to tighten but few other…

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Sustainable government debt – an old idea refreshed
Economics13 February 19<10 February 19

Sustainable government debt – an old idea refreshed

  New research from the Peterson Institute suggests bond yields may fall once more Demographic forces and unfunded state liabilities point to an inevitable…

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A world of debt – where are the risks?
Economics30 January 19<27 January 19

A world of debt – where are the risks?

  Private debt has been the main source of rising debt to GDP ratios since 2008 Advanced economies have led the trend Emerging market…

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Emerging Market Sensitivity to US Monetary Policy – What does the Fed think?
Economics7 January 19<7 January 19

Emerging Market Sensitivity to US Monetary Policy – What does the Fed think?

Emerging market currencies have suffered from US interest rate increases The Dallas Fed proposes reserve/GDP ratio as a simple indicator of stress If tightening…

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How are Chinese stocks responding to tariffs with the US and a slowdown in Asian growth?
Economics9 November 18<9 November 18

How are Chinese stocks responding to tariffs with the US and a slowdown in Asian growth?

Despite US tariffs, China’s September trade balance with the US reached a record high A number of China’s Asian neighbours have seen a deceleration…

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Not waving but drowning – Stocks, debt and inflation?
Economics30 October 18<29 October 18

Not waving but drowning – Stocks, debt and inflation?

Not waving but drowning – Stocks, debt and inflation? The US stock market is close to being in a corrective phase -10% off its…

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