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Economics

Hannibal iterum ad Portas

That soul which once convulsed the world will meet its end,
Not from a sword, or stones, or spears, but from an object
Which, avenging Cannae, will take reprisal for all that bloodshed –
A poisoned ring. Go on, you maniac; charge through the Alpine wastes
To entertain a class of boys and become an oration!

— Juvenal Satire X

Six years ago, on a similar occasion to this, I delivered a speech entitled ‘Hannibal ad Portas’ – ‘Hannibal at the gates’ – in which I outlined many of what I then perceived as building threats to wealth and capital preservation.

Reviewing it now, two things strike me most forcibly: firstly, that what I said was not really so profound, but merely a dogged application of common sense, leavened with the wisdom of the Austrian masters; and, next, that I obviously did a poor job of making my case since I have had to address many of the same points over and over again in the intervening years!

During that time, a good number of the risks I tried to identify have come to a baleful fruition – though I must disclaim any notion of prophethood by declaring that I could neither give any hints as to the timing of the collapse, nor single out its proximate cause, much less detail the specifics of its progress thereafter.

What I did say – and what I have scarcely ceased from repeating since – is the fact that these evils have been visited upon us due, in good part, to the wilful insistence of the court astrologers and lackey alchemists on looking at things economic in entirely the wrong manner, and in no little measure because of our own deranged faith in the conclusions they draw from their necromancy, despite an appalling record of incomprehension and outright falsehood with which we are only too familiar.

In retrospect, ‘Hannibal’ came just as the Boom which has since wrecked us was just beginning to well up toward the fantastical heights it ultimately reached, before rolling over and breaking, and scattering the hopes and dreams of many, like driftwood on a rocky shore.

Though it had its roots a further six years back, one of the salient features of this Boom was the accelerating tendency to create a majority of the new jobs called into being and to invest a dominant share of the new capital being laid down in the export industries of the East, principally – though not exclusively – in China.

But if this meant we Westerners were no longer bothering to increase our productive capacity to make things in quite the way we once did, what were we going to exchange for all the new riches of the Orient which would be pouring out of their shiny, new factories? Why, our IOUS, of course!

In the classical model of this, those IOUs would eventually be presented for redemption. The buyers would have to surrender hard value – gold or silver, typically – and with money becoming scarcer as a result, prices would fall, with the converse happening when the sellers began to spend their swelling revenues at home. This soon would choke off the attractiveness of exporting in the latter and increase the incentives to do so in the former, so restoring balance before things became too far gone and both parties got in over their heads.

Alas, since money has no tangible backing today, that part of it which is surrendered can all too easily be replaced and more excess spending be undertaken – and more debt be contracted – so turning off the regulator at source.

Compounding this mistake, the recipients chose to use this foreign money as the backing for new issues of their own domestic currency and so they absorbed very much more of it than would have been the case if it were simply being used to move container ships around the world. Thus, the ratio between our currency and theirs on the foreign exchanges did not come to reflect the markedly one-way nature of the trade being undertaken with them – theirs did not gradually strengthen, nor ours sufficiently weaken, to disincentivize slowly all but the most competitive exporters there.

Intriguingly, a similar system had been in operation once before as the West sent vast sums of American-mined silver seaward to Asia in return for their exquisite silks and calicoes, their exotic spices, and their translucent porcelains and finely-decorated ceramics.

One essential difference of course, was that the silver had to be won from the bowels of the earth and transhipped perilously across the globe: it was not simply conjured into being in the computer hard drives of some too-big-to-fail banking behemoth and so it remained both scarce and costly to produce. One essential motivation on the part of the Chinese was that the silver helped them ward off the curse of paper money whose use had plagued them ever since the 10th century and which had bought no less than three successive dynasties to their ruin.

For more than three hundred years, this interchange worked to the benefit of both parties – right until we added tea to the list of our wants and found we liked it so much that those of us not dressing up as Indians and dumping it in the harbour could no longer pay our way without offering them something much less benign than silver in return – and so hit upon the opium which we almost literally forced into their nostrils at the point of a gun.

But, we digress.

This time around, the new possibilities which had emerged upon the fall of the old communist order in 1989 began a movement which only quickened after the Asian currency collapse of the late-1990s. This allowed us to tap a new, cheap and seemingly inexhaustible source of labour amid the rubble of left by the fallen ‘Tigers’. As the costs of many other productive inputs which were needed by these workers – such as land, financial capital, and energy – were also suppressed by a deliberate act of policy – and with a multitude of tax rebates and other incentives also tipping the scales – the prices of more and more of the goods in the shops our progressively over-spending, chronically under-investing, Occidental countries not only did not rise, they even had a tendency to decline.

Since those in charge of the money presses in each buying country only ever looked at the price of some artificial basket of those goods which were bought by end-consumers – and given that they even fretted if these were not actually increasing at some outwardly modest, but nonetheless profoundly corrosive, rate – this meant they were happy to strike more and more sparks upon the tinder, until they fanned the flames into a worldwide conflagration.

Of course, with money so easy and credit so cheap – and becoming ever cheaper and more accessible, thanks to the seductive artfulness of the banking industry – it was not long before the prices of everything not being made in China and its peers started to become more expensive instead. Houses started to appreciate and the stock market rallied: the market’s estimation of more and more risky credits improved. Classic cars, antique watches, vintage wines, diamonds, contemporary art – you name it: once people became aware that these things were going up in price faster than the interest balance on their loans, we were off to the races.

But since these were ‘assets’, not mere goods – and so were presumably priced in a fully efficient market by thoroughly rational participants – this was held to be no business of those in the central banks to interfere with. Accordingly, the monetary Hoi Phyllakes, wittingly or not, kept on adding fuel and pumping in air to a speculative inferno which was by now well and truly ablaze.

More debt meant higher prices. Higher prices meant better collateral valuations. More collateral meant more possibilities for lending and so on round again.

Now, you may have found that the whole troupe of formerly cheerleading authors of the profusion of books and newspaper articles which have been rushed out to do a little Monday morning quarterbacking on the debacle this caused are annoyingly keen to bamboozle you with all sorts of highly technical language and confusing terminology, in order that you think they are smart. PIK notes, covenant-light loans, toggles, average-rate securities, structured notes, credit default swaps, constant-proportion debt obligations, CLOs, CDOs, CDO-squareds and even cubeds – these are some of the many buzzwords bandied about by the cognoscenti .

But trying to unpick all this complexity is beside the point: the real crux was that Finance – both High and Low – was no longer allocating genuine savings to potentially useful ends, but rather conjuring up the illusion that there was a Horn of Plenty into which we could all dip – once we had paid our bankers, brokers, and fund salesmen their none-too modest fee, of course.

There was no scarcity; no waiting time was necessary; there was no need to actually produce more value in order to enjoy a better lifestyle. Just sign here, please, Dr. Faustus, and we’ll get you a higher loan-to-value, extended payment terms, and the chance to refinance when the price goes up and the rates come down, as you and I both know they will!

Certainly the specific instruments of economic torture may differ and the incantations may contain altered language, but the same twisted ingenuity of this Guild of Sorcerers’ Apprentices has, over the past 350 years, brought about the Tulipmania of the 17th century; the South Sea and Mississippi Bubbles of the 18th; the canal, gaslight and railway manias of the 19th; the utility and holding company boom of the early 20th; the Tech and Telecom madness of the turn of the 21st, and many, many more episodes of mass insanity in between.

Unsound money and unrestrained credit combines far too readily with Man’s inherent disinclination to live off the sweat of his brow to make him an easy mark for every smooth-tongued, silk-suited chancer who promises him a ticket out of the Land of Nod and, once, again, this fatal weakness has led us to a ruin which has engulfed the innocent along with the guilty.

This collapse, so our friends on the left were only too happy to declare, marked the ‘Death of Capitalism’, but it looks as though their declaration may have been just a little premature. Here we are, only two years after they jubilantly read the rites over the first corpse and the trillion dollar wake they threw may have led directly to the demise of their beloved Provider State as well.

The irony here is that while people may be blind to the notion that their own reckless borrowing and determined over-consumption was what led to disaster, they are far more likely to acknowledge that a similar act of untoward extension by the State is not to be countenanced.

As the limitations of ‘Crude Keynesianism’ became more apparent, the debate swiftly moved on from the phoney war of whether there should have been a bail out or not to a similarly heated one about whether we now need something categorised as ‘austerity’ or  a further dose of Big Government stimulus.

The truth is that even to frame the issue in this simple, sound-bite fashion is to concede half the argument.

What is ’stimulating’ about plying the drunkard with more drink or offering the glutton another helping of cake and what is ‘austere’ about the profligate being told to live once more, within his means?

The only thing austere is the message that there can be no further self-delusion; that there are no easy fixes. That there is no macro-economic diet pill, only hard work, honest endeavour, persistence and self-discipline – in other words, only the traditional route to prosperity. If we are to have a ‘policy’ to promote this, it should be a policy of lubricating, not leading; of facilitating, not force-marching.

The world has changed irrevocably with the bursting of the bubble, so what is needed now is the maximum of flexibility in adapting to such altered circumstances: what the original Austrians called, amid the traumas of the 1930s, an ‘Auflockerung’ – a ‘loosening’ of all the self-imposed rigidities which plague our economic interrelations and hamper a genuine recovery.

Perhaps THE greatest mistake in the whole, vast litany of stupidity which we daily celebrate is to imagine that there actually exists such a discipline as ‘macro-economics’.

The truth is much simpler than this sad parody of physics suggests. The world really is the sum of its parts. It is no more than a summing up of the actions we each take as individuals, a superposition which, contrary to the mainstream prejudice, never does cross some reverse quantum threshold of weirdness whereby what makes perfect sense when I strike a deal with you, you conclude a bargain with him, and he then conducts business with me, somehow produces strange and perverse effects when there are a hundred of   him, a thousand of you, and a million of me.

Once fall prey to this fallacy, however, and you will be ready to believe that to burn the house down is better than to put out the fire; that, if the whole family falls ill, the kids must run a marathon to compensate for the parents; time in the sick bed; that the retreat of an occupying army is bad news because the soldiers won’t be spending the money they first took from us on the few, threadbare goods left in our shops.

To hold this sham of a theory is to believe that capital is an undifferentiated, instantly transformable porridge, not a near infinity of tools, equipment, plant and machinery, fixed in stone, cast in steel, and intricately engineered to serve what is often a very specific purpose.

It is also to imagine that labour is a faceless, uniform, ant heap of automatons, not actual people – to smooth into dull anonymity all the bakers, barristers, scientists, and secretaries all scrambling out of bed each morning to earn a living providing what all the other bakers, barristers, scientists, and secretaries fancy they need to make their individual lives more complete.

Those who do hold this for their revealed truth – the Collectivists, the Keynesians, the Planners, and the Utopians – all have a fundamental disregard for the sanctity for the individual human soul and a profound disrespect for the potential of the individual human mind. Only they can guide us, lead us: only they can refashion our poor human clay in their own, idealized self-image.

This is a Jacobin doctrine of the kind which a religious man might categorize as Satanic in its presumption and yet those who espouse it are the Whitened Graves who routinely slander us Austrians as being dogmatic, desiccated, and discompassionate. Much better to be manifestly pro-market than a Modern Promethean, I would contend.

But, given that our rulers very much do hew to these false gods, what does their worship imply for our wealth? What does it portend for our ability to earn – and keep – an income?

The first thing to realise is that the caterer’s bill for our Banquet of Fools cannot possibly be paid, that our debts are already too high and our promises cannot be redeemed in full.

But, if not the capital R of Redemption, then what? I fear we are in for one of the other R’s; Repudiation, Rescheduling, Refinancing, Redistribution, Repression, or Redenomination.

The hidden benefit of the first, an outright Repudiation, however wrenching the experience may be, is that it might once more drive home the lesson that, no matter what the credit ratings agencies may say, the worst person to lend to is your overlord.

The second – a Rescheduling – is more insidious since it is a hidden form of the first; an outward pretence to repay, but one undertaken on a sufficiently lengthened schedule that the full value will not be rendered to the lender.

Refinancing is really no solution, but only a procrastination which will last only so long as the weaker can piggy-back on the credit of the stronger. Then, one day, all the musicians of Bremen will be found atop one another, each braying plaintively for yet another loan to stagger on awhile further, but each unable to find a further back upon which to clamber.

Redistribution entails a further harvest of the tall poppies, taking what the remnant have so far managed to salvage and adding it to the bonfire of our masters’ vanities. So great are the obligations, however, that even the most swingeing taxation, even the most relentless confiscation, will not yield enough to settle the accounts, so this, too, will prove futile in the end.

By Repression we mean that all pretence at maintaining a market will be abandoned. Increasingly Scarce resources will be allocated not according to price, but by political favour. The ration book will replace the auction house, the commissar will be always right, not the customer, and the border will become a prison wall.

Redenomination means the debt may be repaid in name, but not in substance. This is the Weimar way, the shameless resort to the wheelbarrow as a getaway car for the robbers-in-office whom we elect.

The common factor binding each of these is that they imply a future struggle over who will bear the costs and a battle to determine how long the subsidized can continue to guzzle hungrily at the table of the surcharged.

Now that the camouflage of postponement by further borrowing has been largely stripped away, this has become an urgent question – one whose resolution will affect us all most deeply.

Hence, this is a time that calls for the maximum of adaptability, as well as for a considerable display of both intellectual conviction and moral courage. If we do not have it within ourselves to do, we need to enlist the aid of men – entrepreneurial men, clear-thinking men, men of unflinching resolve – who will seek out opportunities to thrive even amid the wreck of the state and who will find safe havens for our capital regardless of the destructive death throes of Leviathan itself.

If we can persuade such men to look after our material fortunes, we can steel ourselves to face the many other challenges we will doubtless confront, secure in the knowledge that, whatever else these uncertain times may bring, we may yet be spared the worst of the coming recognition of the widespread, societal impoverishment to which the utter abnegation of classic, Manchester liberalism has reduced us.

As I mentioned at the start, the speech I gave six years ago was entitled, ‘Hannibal ad Portas’ in allusion to the admonition made by Roman matrons to their naughty children that, if they did not behave, the foreign bogeyman would take them.

But if Hannibal knocks again, perhaps we should welcome his approach, not fear it and by analogy, perhaps we, too, should embrace our own coming crisis as a rare, precious chance to make things better.

After all, the Romans were plunderers and extortioners on a truly grand scale – and, on that score, have been admired and emulated by power-worshippers and oppressors ever since. For all its specious majesty, Rome, at root, was nothing but a vast, highly-organized, Mafia state which reached its baneful zenith once it had ‘created a desert and given it the lying name of Peace’ in all the fertile lands and amongst all the sophisticated peoples within reach of its hordes of legionary killers.

Carthage, by contrast, was built largely on the gains from peaceful trade by a race – the Phoenicians – which, for a millennium or more, had been renowned for its commercial acumen and enterprising outlook, all along the Middle Sea and out into the terrifying deeps of the Ocean itself.

That reputation, that record of sustained success, strongly hints that, for all the supercilious Roman jeers about ‘Punic treachery’, the Carthaginians knew how to keep their bargains and how to give their many diverse customers mostly what they wanted at a price they were happy enough to pay

So let us not be fooled by fact that Hannibal’s name was taken in vain by the snarling creatures of a jackal-empire who enslaved a world, yet maintained they had never fought an aggressive war.

Perhaps history would have been changed very much for the better if, rather than barring the city gates in his face, the Romans had flung them wide open, and invited the head of the venerable House of Barca to step inside and give them a lesson in business management and accounting principles instead.

Economics

Grossly Distorted Product

It should not come as a shock to readers of your author’s musings to learn that he views the mindless, repetitive, near-valueless kerfuffle which exercises the vast majority of the journeymen toilers and scribes involved in the game of prognosticating of their beloved GDP aggregates, with an amusement which is tinged with just a soupçon of contempt.

The weather was unseasonably dull, those confronted with the surveyors’ clipboards had just argued with their spouses, the price of Apple stock halted its upward surge, or the football season got off to a poor start, so ‘consumer confidence’ has drooped and, ergo, by misapplying Keynes’ trite observations on ‘animal spirits’ to spenders, rather than to the businessmen he so despised, that means retail sales will be soft. Since – in yet another tautological nonsense – ‘consumers make up two-thirds of GDP’, then the holy number itself must be headed lower.

Ye gods! Quick, before we sink into the quagmire of a ‘liquidity trap’ or the ‘multiplier’ becomes instead a divisor, the government had better spend even more – no matter how uselessly or counter-productively – to keep up ‘demand’ while the central bank, for its part, had better stand ready to induce people whose present distress is largely attributable to their past over-borrowing to contract yet further, barely-payable obligations and to fritter the proceeds away on it-matters-not-much-what as long as a cash register rings somewhere, as a result.

Let us once more enumerate the problems inherent in the fixation on GDP, since to look beyond this false god, seems to us a sine qua non of the attempt to perform any more useful an analysis.

Firstly, let us note that the measure is so far from being all-encompassing that it actually ignores roughly two-thirds of the spending which routinely takes place in an advanced economy. In essence, this means that it excludes much of the microeconomic exercise of discretion and entrepreneurial decision-making that goes on and hence is blind to matters which both assure the continuity and give rise to the main variations in the complex, delocalised, real-world economy which surrounds the blinded windows and sound-proofed walls of the statisticians’ ivory tower.

Secondly, it overlooks the fact that if the government arbitrarily orders you to wear two shirts to work in place of the usual one, or forces you to take a far more roundabout route to get there, the resulting increase in textile sales and gasoline usage will nevertheless be counted as a valued addition to output, not a petty act of tyranny.

Thirdly, it is blithely indifferent to the fact that capital is inherently heterogeneous and that labour is only partially versatile. Hence, it cares not a whit that it is all too easy to spend good money in filling the fridge with otherwise fine foodstuffs for the preparation of which we have neither the requisite skills nor the necessary kitchen utensils to hand; or which, when cooked in combination, will offend against the palate of the prospective diners.

Furthermore, it neglects to give any contemplation to the sheer inadmissibility of simply adding a side order of fries to an airbag activating device, to an anti-theft window lock, to an aircraft instrument system as a means of counting the combined material blessings of several hundred million souls – people who also each reckon their enjoyment of whatever small smattering of this mind-boggling diversity it is they partake of in a wholly idiosyncratic and non-additive manner.

But beyond even these epistemological objections, the  quaint truth is that all the blind econometrics, all the angels-on-a-pin correlation analysis, all the past-is-prologue trend extension which goes into the many attempts at predicting this swirling, statistical duck soup of a number are often no more than grand exercises in GIGO – garbage in, garbage out – since the data themselves are inherently suspect.

Take, for example, the recent revisions to the series for the years 2007 to date. It turned out that this latest, ostensibly improved guess at GDP came up a cumulative $264 billion short of the former one – a difference of around $10 billion a month. All very well, you say, since the error amounts to no more than 2% of the typical annual total, or  under a $1 per day per capita, but then reputations are routinely made and lost, fortunes wagered and won, and far-reaching political and financial policy decisions taken on far smaller margins than that.

Even more droll was the discrepancy in something that the State should surely have been aware of all along since it was (a) bailing out half the banks, brokers, and Big Businesses in the country at the time and so presumably took the pains to glance, however cursorily, at their accounts and (b) it has long insisted, in any case, that they submit reasonably representative financial information (and binding tax returns) once every quarter.

Thus, to find that, for 2007-9 combined, after-tax corporate profits turned out to be $304 billion less, the second time around the spreadsheets – a sum representing around a two-fifths of the annual average –and with a $254 billion, 190% revision in the tottering financial sector component alone – well, it does make you wonder.

Fig 1: US Corporate retained earnings

The BEA number crunchers even managed to understate non-financial corporate dividends by $243 billion – or by roughly one half – meaning that (given the accompanying profit shortfall) cumulative retained earnings were out by $295 billion – a mere 245% of their period average! To put this into context, that missing retention would have almost been enough – at the prevailing rates -to have paid the wage bill of a fifth of the entire manufacturing workforce across the nation during those three, blighted years of cutback, curtailment, and contraction.

Astrology may be no more scientifically burdened than is most modern macroeconomics, but at least the guys with the pointy hats and the Catweazle beards know exactly where and when Venus will be passing through the House of Aquarius, and will not therefore come knocking on your door two years hence to say: ‘Sorry, it must have been a speck of dirt on the telescope lens. You should have avoided tall dark strangers at all costs, not married one of them!’

Fig 2: US Private hours worked - 1997-to date

Incidentally, it will be very interesting to see just how ‘cash-rich’ corporate balance sheets turn out to be when these new estimates are incorporated into the Flow of Funds numbers in a month’s time. Certainly, this might go someway to explaining why it is that, this far into the recovery and after the application of record amounts of so-called ‘stimulus’, private hours worked are still where they were back in 1998, having recouped only around a fifth of their losses from the peak, while the headcount has made good barely one in every fourteen jobs shed in the course of the slump.

Ironically, the fact that the trade gap is once more burgeoning as exports stall and imports march on upward is seen by the Gee-whiz GDP-ites as a call for more stimulus (what else?) whereas what it really signifies is that even with so much labour and capital idled, America is living, once again, far beyond its means and hence borrowing the money to do so, wracking up record imports of – and a record imbalance in – consumer goods, as it does.

However, we should not wax too indignant at the prevailing Flat-Earthism of the economists and the investors whose views they colour, for the current growing apprehension about the strength and sustainability is exactly what we have been anticipating since the start of the year, if not before.

Our argument has been based – and broadly validated by subsequent events – on the three-pronged supposition that:-

  1. the arithmetic which so flattered the yearly comparisons during the initial stages of the post LEH-AIG credit freeze (‘Snowball Earth’) would inevitably decay into a less ear-popping trajectory and so frighten the market as growth rates accordingly slowed;
  2. being highly stimulus-dependent and not a subject to a natural healing process (something which the very government intrusions which the Deflationistas so avidly wish to be intensified had actually precluded), any diminution of that stimulus – such as has occurred almost everywhere we look – would see the patient’s artificial convalescence begin to falter;
  3. China – whose intervention was perhaps the most gargantuan and aggressive of all – would be forced to take heed of its socially-disruptive concomitant of end-price inflation and so make sizeable reductions in the treatment’s application, to the ultimate detriment of all who piggy-back on the nation’s immense hunger for resources, components, and machinery.

With forcible, ‘unorthodox’ QE having largely peaked (pro tem) and with the more traditional fiscal-deficit monetization process of re-inflation having also reached its upper bound (at least until resort is once more made to the credit–jacking of the remaining, higher-level sovereigns and supras in support of their weaker peers and sub-divisions), real monetary growth has been everywhere decelerating since the turn of the year.

Lo and behold! With the usual lag of two-three quarters, the all-important growth in business revenues (and, hence, in business spending) has responded and has been reflected in those key sentiment indicators – such as the NAPM and IfO surveys – which these largely determine.

Given their significance, we make no apology for trotting out the relevant charts once more, by way of substantiating this claim.

Fig 3: Japanese rM1 v Small biz profits & sales – 1980-td

Fig 4: US rAMS v NAPM – 1960-to date

Most importantly, the slowdown in real money creation in China has been dramatic: dropping by a   third from 34% yoy to 23% in just six months – a shift which is, moreover, probably understated given the unrepresentative nature of a Chinese CPI construct which is not only sullied by the inclusion of many administered (i.e., artificially fixed) prices, but which excludes many important private expenditures. The impact of this monetary slackening on such real-side quantities as industrial production could not be more clear.

Fig 5: EZONE rM1 v Ifo/INSEE – 1992-to date

Fig 6: d2(China rM1) v d2(Industrial Production YOY) – 1997-to date

Is this the dreaded “double-dip”? Not necessarily of itself, but the emerging retardation – even if this would not otherwise become a retrograde motion – may nonetheless give financial markets a fright sufficient for them to undermine a fragile real economy which remains largely uncleansed of the toxic waste of the Boom and whose functioning is still impaired by the many inappropriate constellations of capital and labour held over therefrom, largely at the behest of the State.

In such a condition – and absent sufficient incentive or means for corrective entrepreneurial action to effect a curative re-ordering – this unsteady structure is likely to sway and shudder once more. As it does, it will appear to the many 1937-paranoids in authority (who are sadly unwilling to allow it to be partially dismantled and properly re-assembled) to stand instead in need of further, ad hoc buttressing.

The next downswing – should it become aggravated by a new wave of violent deleveraging – will thus contain the seeds of the next monetary intervention and thence the next ersatz rebound, all of which cosmetic surgery is likely to postpone, not promote, a genuine recovery for far longer than is in any way necessary.

Politics

Profits of doom

Readers who enjoyed my Cui Bono article earlier this week may be interested in this piece from Times Higher Education:

Climate change is serious business – in more ways than one. Martin Cohen describes how capitalist ‘bootleggers’ have co-opted the environmental ‘Baptists’ to fulfil their raison d’etre – making money. Thanks to the ‘greenwash’, the solutions could be worse than the problems

In view of recent comments by our minister for Energy and Climate Change, Cohen’s account of the Danish experience with wind power is especially illuminating:

Until recently, the most important subsidy supporting the sector was that the Danish National Grid (and hence consumers) was obliged by law to buy all the electricity produced by wind-power projects – and to do so at prices determined by the government, not the market. That’s why Danish householders must pay almost double the UK price for electricity. Estimates of the costs of the subsidies differ – the Danish government says it is about DKr4 billion (£443 million) a year – but independent experts put it at about DKr10 billion a year. If the higher estimates are correct, it would mean that Denmark has been spending more on wind turbines each year than on education.

With wind turbines, a conventional power station must always provide back-up. For the Danes, traditional power stations with capacities equal to 90 per cent of the installed wind-power capacity must be permanently online to guarantee supply at all times.

As mentioned, the nominal output of wind power is far greater than the actual output. A more realistic target for the Department of Energy and Climate Change would be the construction of 100,000 wind turbines. Unfortunately, Wales is too small for all those. Instead, a 10km-deep dedicated strip right around the coast of the British Isles would be required. Even Brighton, and its new Green MP, would be blown away …

Cui bono?

Economics

Improper Fractions

No arguments are to be looked at with more suspicion than those which, from the acknowledged impossibility of attaining to perfection, would infer that it is absurd to attempt the nearest possible approximation to it. If a system be erroneous, the very consequences of its errors generally constitute the most powerful impediment to a correction of it. But, if that impediment were to be held conclusive, the result would be no other than this – that the errors of inadvertency, when they have prevailed for a certain time, are, upon a discovery of their nature, to be persevered in from deliberation and choice.

— William Huskisson on Depreciation of the Currency, 1810

In ‘Risk and Failure in English Business’, his study of the development of eighteenth century Britain, UCL professor Julian Hoppit identifies no less than ten financial and commercial crises to have occurred during its first eight decades, to which a quick glance at the annals allows us to add at least three more over the next two. In the nineteenth century, we can enumerate roughly one such outbreak a decade in Britain alone, with a higher count if we include episodes from the Continent or the fledgling US of A.

To gain a feel for the shockingly contemporary nature of much of this litany of default and defalcation, consider what David Morier Evans had to say about his American contemporaries’ behaviour as far back as 1837:-

The banks, instead of controlling and giving right direction to adventurous enterprise, identified themselves with speculation; descended from their high station as conservators of capital and, while they enriched a few corrupt associations, ruined the community and entailed permanent dishonour on the nation.

We moderns, however, are in no position to mock the gullibility or primitivism of our forebears since, in the last  35 years alone, we have reeled from side to side of our own Ship of Fools – through the Bretton Woods break up; the oil shocks and secondary banking crisis; the LDC debt disaster; the Plaza-Louvre accords rollercoaster; the Crash of ’87; the S&L tsunami; the implosion  of the Japanese ‘Miracle’; the early 90’s property bust; the Tequila Crisis; the Asian Contagion; the Russian bankruptcy and LTCM fiasco; the Tech-Telecom bubble; defaults and devaluations in Latin America, Turkey and Eastern Europe; Enron, WorldCom and the corporate bankruptcy spike; the CDO/sub-prime catastrophe; and, now, yet another period of simmering sovereign debt distress.

Though circumstances differ greatly, it is not hard to find the common denominators in all of this. Principally, we cite the particular legalized violence which is governmental abuse of credit, especially where this either involves, promotes, or relies upon that frightful chimera of corporatism which is fractional deposit banking.

The astute and highly-explanatory observation made by the political philosopher Franz Oppenheimer was that there are two essential ways by which men seek to make a living. The first of these means is the economic one, involving private production and free exchange based upon voluntary association on an unhampered market. The second is the use of political means which is, at root, nothing more than a protection racket, an extortion of property with menaces, whether the shakedown is undertaken by the leader of some local banditti (‘We don’t need no stinkin’ badges!’) or by the Right Honourable Members of that Neo-Gothic fantasyland upon the Thames.

To this we could perhaps add a third means, one which straddles the two, for, as the Medici long ago recognised, banking entails a system whereby ‘the money gets the power and the power protects the money.’ Or, as the Swiss constitution puts it: ‘the law of private property does not apply to the Swiss National Bank’ – an unusually explicit recognition of the privilege extended by grant of a positivist state to its favoured institutions in infringement of natural law.

What shall it profit a Man?

Foremost among these are the sanction of fractional reserve banking (about which much more below); the introduction of and compulsion to accept fiat money; and, undergirding the whole by binding the monied interest to the state – as the founders of the Bank of England were proud to affirm – the incorporation of that engine of inflation and that paymaster of executive absolutism, the central bank.

This form of banking is very effective at fostering, fortifying, and fossilizing a self-perpetuating plutocracy whose venality is thereby left unchecked and whose vested interest comes to dominate policy making. It is, moreover, a marvellous way of inducing elected politicians  – who, as a class, are not usually well-versed in such matters and who are, in any case, incentivized to suppress any misgivings they may feel – to believe they are able to ignore the hard constraints of economic inevitability. This highly dubious presumption is one for which they generally seek to enlist electoral support by trumping Marie Antoinette in declaring: “Let them eat cake and have it, too!” All that such men aim at is that the bill does not finally fall due until they personally relinquish the reins of power to their successors. Thus is both their cynicism and their Saint-Simonism bankrolled, to the detriment of all.

The bankers, too, are apt to delude themselves that mere economics can be circumvented if sufficient twisted ingenuity can be applied by their batteries of idiot-savants in cooking up a new batch of so-called ‘innovations’. These are usually dressed up in complex sounding names or clouded in a daunting alphabet soup of obscure acronyms, but represent little more than accounting tricks wrapped up with inappropriate gambling strategies. These consist of the hoary old devices of anticipating and then capitalizing future revenues; palming off the devalued coin; cheque-kiting; playing fast-and-loose with both capital requirements and capital structure; hiding exposures off balance sheet through wholly legal chicanery; and otherwise obfuscating the risks being run through the employment of, e.g., securitisation, ‘special-purpose’ vehicles, and derivatives.

Innovations, when undertaken by a real business are aimed at improving the range of realisable material possibilities by discovering how to do more, or better, with less. In finance, however, the usual game is to try to extend the range of claims upon such possibilities by finagling a way to buy more, or better, with less money down and extended payment terms thereafter.

As that giant of Victorian High Finance, Samuel Loyd, Lord Overstone, put it:

The ordinary advantages to the community arising from competition are that it tends to excite the ingenuity and exertion of the producers, and thus to secure to the public the best supply, due regard being had to the quality and quantity of the commodity, at the lowest price, while all the evils arising from errors or miscalculations on the part of the producers will fall on themselves and not on the public. With respect to a paper currency, however, the interest of the public is of a very different kind; a steady and equable regulation of its amount by fixed law is the end to be sought and the evil consequence of any error or miscalculation upon this point falls in a much greater proportion upon the public than upon the issuers.

The consequences of ignoring this injunction should be all too apparent. Indeed, this is a methodology which the Bank of England’s own Director of Financial Stability (titter ye not at the ‘Io, Saturnalia!’ implications of his title) pithily dubbed ‘Risk Illusion’ in a recent speech.

  • Firstly, it generates the immense waste of the business cycle itself.
  • Secondly, it imposes a chronic inflationism upon society – an insidious pestilence which intersperses treacherously quiet periods of relative dormancy (viz., the risibly-named ‘Great Moderation’) with feverish eruptions of mass self-aggravation. This corrodes morality, self-reliance, and the viability of voluntarism as much as it renders all economic calculation suspect.
  • Thirdly, it dragoons us all into the role of speculator – regardless of aptitude or circumstance – as we try to preserve our spared value across time in order to provide for our dotage, or to bequeath a little seed capital to our children.
  • Fourthly, the insidious Cantillon effect of favouring those who get the new money first sucks far, far too many resources into finance itself, turning it from a conduit of savings and a facilitator of investment into a canker of self-engorgement and a furtherer of intemperance.

Finally, since few can protect themselves adequately from its ravages, such a system immeasurably increases the value of state patronage and so expands the reach of  collective politics and shrinks the realm of private, economic action to a mere vestige of what it should be in a flourishing republic of law.

In sum, our dire financial-political symbiosis – what John Brewer memorably rendered as the ‘fiscal-military state’ – leads to the apotheosis of the Financier Class, the Expropriation of the Middle Class and the demoralization of the Working Class, a sorry pass we might justifiably term, Soft Fascism.

The Midgard Serpent

Once in the coils of this world-girdling Jörmungandr, we swiftly find that they form a vicious circle which slowly constricts our liberties and occasionally chokes out our very lives.

Banks emerge from the last crisis temporarily chastened and perhaps even subject to a tighter regulatory leash. But, before long, they have forgotten their former humble state and are embarking upon another wave of ‘innovation’ as their in-house sorcerer’s apprentices learn to game the new regime and once more prise open the Pandora’s Box of bad money and easy credit.

These are, after all, in their current manifestation, institutions riven with agency problems. They lack a due proportionality of aims between insiders and outsiders, or between short-term and long. They are unrestrained by the availability of that virtual ‘capital’ which only an institution with largely immaterial values on both sides of its balance sheet can deploy. They are ever-prone to a total abnegation of fiduciary duty – and yet they are the favoured children of a state which loves nothing better than the meretricious euphoria of the Boom, a period when politicians, too, can persuade themselves they have become true, bull market geniuses.

Come the inevitable dispelling of this illusion and the Bust is soon torn by the mutual recriminations, now that the thieves have fallen out. Boasts of ‘market fundamentalism’ give way to sneers of ‘market failure’– though the role of anything genuinely purporting to be a ‘market’ in all this remains elusive.

Those who would debauch us from the Right now cede place to those who would despoil us from the Left in a vicious circle which causes what we might call a dialectical dematerialisation of wealth and freedom, two precious pearls which are ground to dull, grey powder between the millstones of their antagonistic, but equally determined enemies.

Making the cycle worse is the fact that it has its own epicycle of Fatal Conceit intermeshed with it, for the modern central bank is not just there ‘for the continuation of the war’ – i.e. to obviate the need for the executive to persuade those who would otherwise furnish it with its ‘sinews’ to comply with its demands – nor is it merely the ultimate back-stop for the bankers’ cabal – ‘the lender of last resort’ – it is nowadays its own little Gosplan, charged with steering that grand, aggregate, quasi-hydraulic, abstract problem of engineering we are wrongly indoctrinated to think of as the duly-capitalized ‘Economy’.

Pushing and pulling on the levers of liquidity; arbitrarily moving interest rates up and down rather than letting capital-in-being and expressions of composite time preference lead them to their own level; tinkering with foreign exchange rates and even asset prices at large, the central bank aspires to a monopoly of knowledge it cannot, in fact, possess and, in serving too many masters at once, it compounds its errors of economic ignorance by dropping all other objectives in order to become a fire-fighter whenever the contradictions between them break out into open unrest.

Hence, moral hazard is entrenched and extended, crisis by crisis, as our earlier authority, Lord Overstone, was well aware it would when he railed, over 150 years ago, that:

The vicious system of Credit and Banking which is the source of the evil will derive additional strength from the assurance that, in all future emergencies, the Law will be relaxed for their assistance and protection… this leads me to anticipate future convulsions, increasing in magnitude, and more formidable in their consequences…

Where all this ends up is perhaps best characterised as a Vacuous Circle – one built on nothing more tangible than the Cheshire Cat’s smile: a reverse transubstantiation where the more you look, the less you see.

In this, the state realizes it cannot do without its stricken banks (no matter what temptations accrue in the meanwhile to succumb to a populist condemnation of their undoubted enormities). Thus, it injects what it calls ‘capital’ into them and begins a ‘counter-cyclical’ expansion along the lines of that advocated by Bloomsbury’s most hallowed underconsumptionist crank in order to maintain ‘aggregate demand’ – whatever that might be.

Figure 3: Who’s saving whom?

Since this means it is soon spending even more above its income than is its norm, it also provides our central bank commissars – through their direct or indirect purchases of the resulting security issuance – with a way to inject more money into a system to make up  for the quasi-nationalized banking sector’s temporarily inability to do so. As it expands its balance sheet – and takes on a riskier range of assets so as to accomplish this – the CB seeks an explicit guarantee from the Treasury that any losses which thereby accrue will be made good and so ensures that its own, vanishingly thin layer of ‘equity’ will not be compromised.

However, the longer the malaise persists – and an Austrian would have to insist that the reinflationary shock treatment and associated meddling is more likely to hinder, rather than to help, the self-healing process of entrepreneurial adjustment and individual self-repair – more and more will the awareness spread of the unsustainability of the government’s own finances, shifting the locus of the crisis to the sovereign fisc.  Faced with a strike on the part of many of the former buyers of its paper, the state will insist that the banks mutate from the saved to the saviours by taking up that paper of their masters which its former buyers will not now accept – before refinancing it on highly favourable terms with the increasingly overstretched central bank.

So each drowning man avows that he will hold up all the others, though, the truth is that not only do all risk foundering, but that this noyade will drag under many whose only sin is to be unfortunate enough to live within the main actors’ jurisdiction.

Glasshouse or Glass-Steagall?

So, what is the solution? So far the suggestions – where actually made in some approximation of good faith – have focused on what we might call a narrowly institutional approach. This has certain merits – if only because nothing could be worse than leaving things as they are – but it will probably only provide an arena for future exercises of ‘innovation’. Like the hydra, we can expect two heads to grow for everyone that is severed unless we cauterize each wound as we go and for this we require the flaming brand of monetary reform, not the flickering taper of financial regulation.

One suggestion is that the banks undergo a rigorous separation of function, reversing a trend towards ‘universal’ banking which, far from adducing to stability, has patently encouraged even the most sleepy and conservative of financial firms to ‘tunnel’ profits from one department to another and to treat customer funds merely as the table stakes which senior employees and executives hope to parlay into the huge bonuses they intend to carve out of their winnings in the Global Casino.

Among their diverse roles, bankers (let us not here say, ‘banks’) may act as brokers of loans, foreign exchange or securities, earning a fee for bringing the two sides of a transaction together; they may lend their own capital to underpin the extension and acceptance of trade or other commercial finance; they may underwrite and even participate in the raising of capital for other firms; they may offer financial and investment counselling; and they may even take up the honourable enough role of speculators – provided this is not undertaken in connexion with a limitless ability to create credit from nothing and hence they should not be afforded the power to ignite a destabilizing, leveraged firestorm of conjoint asset-collateral appreciation.

Individually, all of these fields offer the scope for genuine entrepreneurialism: mixed together they are a bordello of the temptation to peculation and a cesspool filled with conflict of interest. Singly or separately, they should take place without either explicit or implicit government support or subsidy and should be subject to no less rigorous an application of the law than is any other business. It may even be asked whether the positivist legal privilege of limited liability should be withheld from those charged with managing other people’s wealth. Though it seems anachronistic to say so, even this was once seen as a dangerous ‘innovation’ which bought increased activity at the cost of a drastic reduction in personal responsibility, no where moreso than in finance.

If men wish to become bankers for the rewards they foresee, surely they can not object to being obliged to form a partnership to that end – a constraint which would bring the added benefit of preventing that overconcentration of risks which results in the deplorable spectacle of the worst malefactors being deemed ‘too big to fail’ and propped up at their victims’ expense.

For all the merits of such ideas, the issue of paramount importance is that bankers should be proscribed from undertaking any of the above activities in a manner which can itself give rise to the creation of money, per se. Once that particular genie is out of the bottle, all other hopes of a purer, safer finance are a phantasm or will-o-the-wisp: corked firmly inside it, however, and we may finally lay the ghosts of Chang Yung, Law, Thornton, and Keynes.

Physician, Heal thyself!

Now we come to the vexed issue of whether or not a Libertarian can consistently demand that the State whose interference he so abhors should be enjoined to enact the reforms he feels are necessary in this – or, indeed, in any other sphere. In this particular context, the question often finds expression in the rather querulous enquiry: “Why do you Austrians suddenly become so étatiste when it comes to banking?”

Firstly, we must insist upon our earlier proposition that banking – as presently constituted – is an insidious practice which straddles Franz Oppenheimer’s great divide between those who make their living through economic means (i.e., through private production and free exchange) and those who extort one, stealing others’ bread through political means.

Thus to enlist the machinery of the state to deny banking its access to political enrichment – leaving only its genuine market functions unfettered – is no more an act of tyranny than it would be to order the secret policemen to perform one last duty of throwing open the prison cells before handing in their uniforms and relinquishing their offices, once and for all.

Beyond even this objection, however, there comes the claim that, so long as a reformed banking takes place upon a ‘free’ basis – i.e., absent any government support, whether explicit or implicit – then it is nobody’s concern whether or not the individual bank decides to operate upon a fractional reserve (or ‘fiduciary media’) basis.

To our counter that there can be no justification for allowing an organisation to exist which is grounded in the non-Aristotelian nonsense that both A and not-A can simultaneously lay claim to the same property title, our free-fractional antagonists respond, in turn, that no voluntary arrangement – however delusional its basis – should ever be explicitly banned.

That may be all well and good for so long as the madmen confine themselves to their private, mutually-chosen bedlam. But, if one of them insists that when I buy from him – or, indeed, from one with whom he has previously dealt – a mutton, he is at liberty to deliver me something with two legs and feathers that clucks and lays eggs, the insanity he perpetrates can now have no place in any valid form of contract.

And – no! – for all the many attempts at establishing the analogy, fractional reserve banking (FRB) is NOT akin either to owning a stake in a time-share apartment or to paying for membership of a gym where the number of subscribers is demonstrably greater than the count of the machines.

Notice that the very description of the first clearly delineates a shared (i.e. partial) – and hence non-overlapping – claim to ownership, while the latter represents what is not even a call option upon fitness equipment services, but rather the purchase of a repeated entry to a lottery (albeit one in which the chances of winning are unusually elevated as these things go!) whose prize is their momentary usufruct.

Moreover, this misses the point that FRB precisely does allow multiple owners to exchange their sham claims for real property, so a better parallel would be the improbable case where you can persuade your grocer to let you pay at the checkout by offering him to give him your gym membership card.

Once the gym owner realises that this is happening, he will abandon his former estimate of how many such memberships he can sell – a calculation once based upon the size of his establishment and the likely avidity for physical exertion he gauged his clientele would display – and instead he will start issuing more and more of the cards, secure in the knowledge that their owners now consider most of these not as use goods – against which he will routinely have to deliver – but as exchange goods whose hidden toll the wider community will be duped into bearing as he progressively expands their number and hence dilutes their content.

At its most basic, FRB pretends to offer a plurality of persons simultaneously exercisable rights to demand delivery of a present economic good, a veritable delusion; a rub-a-dub-dub, three-men-in-a-tub proposition with which only a quantum physicist could possibly be comfortable.

The Spark in the Powder-room

But let us move beyond what some may see as mere casuistry and consider a more fundamental objection, namely that for the true libertarian, liberty is a negative construct: that one can give rein to any form of behaviour one chooses – no matter how reprehensible some third-party moralist, or how manifestly self-damaging some frustrated paternalist may deem it – as long as the enjoyment of that liberty occasions no infringement upon the freedoms, or harm to the property rights, of others

Here, is where we would make our case against FRB most strongly, for it is not merely a question of the issuers of fractional monies stamping clear health warnings about their irredeemability-in-extremis upon the bank-notes, cheque-books, and cash cards which they give out and leaving the rest to an appeal to the spirit of caveat emptor – FRB is much more pernicious than that and much more harmful to the commonwealth at large.

After all, a man may well walk a highwire strung between two skyscrapers to which he has legal access – and he may even step out into the void, trusting to the imaginary support of a fractional reserve tightrope, if he so wishes – but what he may not do is jeopardise the lives of the innocents going about their lawful business hundreds of feet below him, wholly oblivious to the human sword of Damocles which teeters precariously above them.

Wherein, then, does this harm lie? Well, in the very consequences of all inflationism, of course – in the engendering of cycles of mass entrepreneurial error; in the inequitable enjoyment of a seigniorage rent by the issuers of money claims, destined to become overmighty in the economy as a result of this sweat-free exaction; in the promotion of disruptive fluctuations in the prices of goods and titles thereto by making them subject to a destabilizing speculation on the part of a hypertrophic financial sector which acts on the principal that where credit begets price rises, price rises beget collateral value, and collateral value again begets credit.

A bank may, of course, freely engage in credit broking and negotiation – bringing together borrowers and lenders (who enjoy no subsequent recourse to the bank itself) together for a fee; or earning a ‘net interest margin’ by interposing its own, saved capital between the two parties as additional security for the creditor.

What it must NOT, however, be allowed to do is to grant a credit ab ovo from nothing more than an entry on its books, trusting that an offsetting liability will later reappear as its loan customer’s payee seeks a home – however temporarily – for the proceeds, whether these are directly placed over the originating bank’s own counter or whether it borrows the relevant deposit from some other bank where the receipt has been parked, at least not where any liability in this chain takes the form of an unbacked demand – or fiduciary money – deposit.

We say this because such a mechanism, once permitted to operate, can and will be repeated many times over, distorting monetary valuations and eroding the whole superstructure of sequential exchange – and hence inflicting harm upon non-participating individuals. As the disgraced ex-CEO of Citibank, Chuck Prince, famously and hubristically put it, in the summer of 2007, just before the iceberg tore open the bows of the entire ill-fated White Star fleet: ““When the music stops, in terms of liquidity, things will be complicated. But as long as the music is playing, you’ve got to get up and dance. We’re still dancing.”

Or, as the ever-sage Overstone argued in 1837:-

A Banker cannot contract his accommodation at a period when the whole trading and mercantile world are acting under one common impetus of expansion. If, under these circumstances, the Banker, in addition to what may properly be called his ordinary and legitimate resources, is also entrusted with the power of issuing paper-money ad libitum, is it not inevitable that he should abuse that power? Can we expect that… while all his other resources are strained to the utmost… he will keep a firm and unyielding restraint over the amount of his issues? Will he, under such temptations, in no respect compromise his…duties…?

The harm comes about because each practising FRB bank becomes instantly and irrevocably illiquid – a parlous status no other businessmen may wilfully entertain while in operation – while it also aggravates the hazard of becoming insolvent since any consequent monetary tremor will be multiplied throughout the shaky pyramid of a credit become too far extended; too far removed from the possibility of service – much less redemption – by its intemperate distribution; and too blithely treated as a viable money substitute by a majority dulled into incaution by the easy prosperity of the resulting inflationary Boom, yet disastrously prone to spurn it in favour of real money once the spectre of the Bust intrudes.

This Little Piggy went to Market

There are those who see this as ‘only’ a question of narrow financial prudence, going on to argue (in a rather credulous fashion, in the eyes of this particular, jaundiced, financial market veteran), that the removal of state support for the banks will be sufficient to bring behaviour back within acceptable bounds of risk, logical impossibilities and endemic insolvency, notwithstanding.

What this approach still neglects, however, is the pernicious effect of even the most actuarially-conservative generation of money de novo by banks on the very basis for entrepreneurial calculation and business planning.

Whether you see money as merely representational – as a warehouse receipt for some more material consignment of value – or as a good providing services in its own right, either it (or that which underlies it) must be, like all other economic goods, subject to scarcity and hence subject to hard choices about which other subjectively valued good will and will not be foregone in order to acquire or to hold on to it.

Once this qualification is removed – a deletion which FRB fatally achieves – we not only compromise money’s role as a medium of exchange in the here and now, but we scramble its ability to help distinguish between present and prospective outcomes, i.e., we disrupt intertemporal signalling, too.

In a distributed, divided-labour,delocalized, highly discretionary economic network such as ours, money must act as a reliable transmitter of information, not just as a porter of goods: it is not just a bloodstream, but also a neurotransmitter and while any disturbance to the former is cause enough for concern, any degradation of the latter function is likely to prove critical for the whole body politic.

No matter how restricted the practice might become once the state does not actively endorse or underwrite it, it is hard to acquiesce in a process which effectively counterfeits not just currency, but economic data – falsifying cargo manifests and forging bills of lading; faking stock taking and fiddling work rosters; miring the whole Spontaneous Order of the free market in a Great Salad Oil Swindle of fictitious accounting.

Figure 4: Six Crusoe Island – every man for himself

We can start to visualize this by considering what happens when we move from subsistence agriculture to a specialized system of production for exchange, as shown here. Once a number of merchants meet at a fair or country market, the hoary old ‘coincidence of wants’ argument leads us to suspect the rapid selection of a money will quickly follow, the better to circulate goods between them all.

Figure 5: The first market

Now C finds B has already sold to borrower E, leaving him chasing an alternative outlet of a lower, less satisfying ordinal ranking for his money, and so he ends by driving up the price of, say, corn. This accrues to B’s immediate disadvantage since his real return on the labour which he devoted to producing and marketing his eggs cannot but decline.

Figure 6: Money makes the World go round

Were bank money only hard – i.e., 100% backed by money proper, F could only have borrowed to buy B’s eggs if some other member of the group could have been persuaded to forego his own purchase in favour of saving that money, placing it in the bank, and seeing it lent on to F. No-one could have been cheated of his due, or seen his standard of living forcibly lessened in order to promote another’s higher, FR bank-enabled gratification.

Had that saver been C himself, little noticeable change would have occurred at all. But even the unquestioned and possibly discomfiting adjustments to be undertaken if anyone else had suddenly deferred his wonted consumption would at least have had the merit of being the result of a genuine change in consumer preferences. These would have been flagged through their effect on relative prices. C would soon have become aware that he had henceforth to consider either producing less of what he did before or else finding a remunerative way to lower his selling prices. The change in ‘data’ would also have sent out a message that surplus goods in some form now existed and that these could be used as capital, were anyone to be struck with a bright enough idea as to how to put them to a different  — and hopefully more productive – use in the future.

Saving – the Source of All Spending

Patently, we do not live in such a simple E-Bay world of selling and buying horizontally, across the same (lower) order of end-consumer goods. Rather, the majority of us earn a living – and contribute to a vastly more productive array as we do – by helping give rise to higher-order goods – parts, precursors, tools, tramways, machines, machine-makers, forges, fireclays, smelters, semi-submersible drill rigs, and so forth.

In order to get to this particular state, goods spared immediate, exhaustive, end-consumption were once required, both to be redeployed as specific constituents of the new businesses’ equipage and in order to feed and clothe the personnel involved in their construction while they waited for the saleable goods to which they will give inception to be completed and stacked on the supermarket shelves in their turn.

The powerful consonance here, as we shall see, is that it takes net new saving to build the chain, ab initio, but then gross saving of the same magnitude in order to maintain it. Therein lies the danger of FRB and a prime reason why it should never be countenanced, as we shall further try to explain.

As a first step, imagine that, instead of each making end goods directly, E and F come to realise that if they specialize, the products of their labours will be fructified – that they will either make more with less, or take less time doing the same, or both. What they discover next is that while E is rearranging his affairs, he will not be contributing to the end product for the one ‘cycle’ for which this retooling lasts. Thus he and F must already have saved one unit of end product before they can begin.

Once set up, this vertically integrated arrangement, this proto-productive structure, sees F have receipts of 2 units, one of which he extracts for his own income and spends (essentially on his own output), the other of which he remits to E in settlement of the intermediate goods he earlier delivered. E, in turn, spends that 1 unit on the remainder of F’s output of consumer goods.

Since the act of foregoing consumption today in the hope of enjoying a like or greater sum of consumption later is how we define SAVING in the first place, it is not too far a semantic stretch to insist that the ends to which F has committed half of his revenues have taken the form of saving even if to engage in such a productive outlay (an investment) seems very different to Grandma putting her widow’s mite into her post office account, for a rainy day. If you doubt this, just picture the distinction between the case when the CEO buys a new machine and hires ten new workers to service it – in the hope of boosting profitable output in the not-too-distant future – and that when our Boardroom Bravo simply votes himself a bigger pay rise and lays in a few crates of Chateau Margaux and a Picasso cartoon with the proceeds.

That granted, let us now suppose D is persuaded to join the chain, making an even higher-order good for E to transform, now into two, not one, unit of input to F’s factory, enabling him to churn out three, rather than two, units of final consumer goods. Now, F’s revenues expand to 3 units, but his cost of sales (all labour being supposed to be his own, and hence all net income, his profit) reach 2 (his gross saving), while E now spends 1 unit on end goods (to keep body and soul together) and devotes one unit of further saving to paying D his dues, so that D too may eat of F’s harvest.

Figure 8: Repeat as necessary

Already the economy has been transformed into one wherein the 3 original units of final output – of GDP, if you must – have been replicated, but now to the accompaniment of three additional units of gross saving where at first there were none. If we further trace back the process by which D moved from subsistence to his role high up in the structure, we can see that this involved him in waiting for two cycles to pass until his output found its final embodiment on the shop floor. Thus it takes two net units of saving (in addition to the one already laid out on E) and that this formative net saving henceforth becomes entrained as part of the expanded total of three units of gross saving continually involved in each repetition of the process. Again, we have three units of GDP-type end spending, but also three units of saving which go wholly unrecorded by the mainstream macromancers.

It should be obvious that each further lengthening (each ‘vertical’ increase) in the structure requires proportionately more saving and hence we are led to assume an ever increasing fraction of overall economic activity which will be completely neglected by a Keynesian-Kuznetzian mainstream which will thereby be left tangled in its non existent paradoxes and self-contradictions. Indeed, by the time all our six original actors have rearranged themselves into a chain of sequential buying and selling, we will have six GDP units but no less than 15 units of gross saving at issue.

Figure 9: Hayek meets Henry Ford

This may seem odd to those brainwashed to believe the mantra that ‘consumption is 70% of GDP’ but only because GDP is largely defined to capture end consumption in the first place! Hence the truism is a little like that saying that since 50% of the clothing I put on my feet are socks, the state of rest of my attire has no bearing on how warmly I need to dress when I go for a stroll! In fact, a careful reckoning of the US economy shows that there is a ratio between exhaustive, end expenditures and all business outlays of around 1 to 3.2, whereas our toy economy here gives a ratio of 6 to 21 or ~1 to 3.5

Figure 10: The Saving Grace of Specialization

Indeed, by plugging in the actual official statistics from the US which pertain to wages (including the forced levy on all – the tax – which employs the legions of the State), entrepreneurial income, sales margins, the proportion of revenues spent on buying-in goods and services (what we tend to call ‘Chain’ outlays), and that paid to one’s own workers – and after adding a few simplifying assumptions – we can pretty much mimic the broad structure of that entire economy with just such a simple, six-stage model as has already been outlined.

Figure 11: A Toy version of the US Economy

[As an aside, even the sums laid out by the last, lowest order entrepreneur on his own workforce is money he could have spent on end-consumption not, as here, for a productive purpose. Strictly speaking, it, too, can therefore be considered an act of ‘saving’, driving this proportion even higher in the overall mix and further giving the lie to the Keynesian bedazzlement with end-spending and its abhorrence of thrift.]

Figure 12: The Actual US Economy

Though we have not shown it here, the inference must be that we undertake all the toil and self-denial needed to institute this capital-intensive procedure, this savings-fertilized method of cultivation because we are aware that it leads to both a greater fecundity and a greater rapidity in the productive process.

What may be less evident from this schematic view is that, in order to provide higher order producers with the necessary capital means – without introducing dangerous disharmonies to the entire ensemble by  simply creating a fictive version of them in the banking hall – we must trust in the emergence of a positive feedback between a greater division of labour, higher technological efficiency, greater material plenty, more readily available savings, lower yields on a more abundant capital provision and – yes! – gently falling prices.

Every Man for Himself

If you have borne with us so far in this somewhat protracted preamble, we may finally return to our theme in hand: viz., why FRB is so harmful and hence why there can be no place for it in the Free Society of our dreams.

Let us suppose that when we tried to introduce D to our nascent productive chain above, there were actually no real savings to hand. No-one had sufficiently foregone consumption: no-one had built up a large enough sum of loanable funds as their counterpart. As a result of this dearth, D’s attempt to utilize those funds would have immediately and correctly pushed up the yield payable on them, to the point where his undertaking would have been entirely discouraged.

Reinforcing this, relative prices – here the ones between those of the present goods which D needs as inputs (but which no-one else has relinquished) and the break-even prices of the future goods into which he hopes to turn them (and which must incorporate the higher interest his lender will charge) – will closely reflect the balance of consumer time preferences and the availability of the scarce, physical entities to be apportioned between them.

But, suppose a fractional reserve bank (state-fostered or free) had stepped into the breach, offering a simulacrum of those funds to D who – as a would-be entrepreneur, not an expert on Austrian monetary economics – could hardly be expected to appreciate the degree of extra risk this entailed, both to his own project and to the well-being of others, when he took this bogus ‘money’ and sought to wrest goods away from those not otherwise willing to surrender them from the purposes to which they had habitually been put.

Arriving early with his unbacked deposit claim in hand, D might initially inveigle their vendor to sell to him, but only by forcing others to go short of what they were accustomed to acquiring with their own, real money. D’s increased command over the available pool of resources could only come, therefore, at the expense of someone else’s real income, thanks to the fraud of FRB.

Without looking any more deeply into the likely consequences of this depredation, the very fact that we have here entered into a zero-sum game of pre-emption and deception, even as we are supposedly seeking to extend the scope of a harmonious, coherent, interaction of mutual betterment, should lead us to doubt whether such underhand means can ever be truly compatible with their avowedly benign ends.

What will happen, in essence, is that – this first time, at least – the late arrivals to the shopping centre will find that the shelves are less well stacked than before and that they must perforce make do with less, even if they offer the same sum of money as would previously have filled their baskets.

What Mises termed ‘forced saving’ has made its malign appearance. This is a phenomenon which, left to run without further injections of bogus money (and absent a near-miraculous, post hoc acceptance of the changed structure which D and his FR Bankers are trying to dictate to their fellows), will soon give rise to reversionary shifts (Hayek’s ‘Ricardo effect’) and a negative yield-curve struggle for liquidity (his ‘Investment that raises the Demand for Capital’) as producers and consumers come, not to co-operate, but to strive among one another like the warriors sprung from the dragon’s teeth in King Aeetes’ field.

But, as we have seen, whatever capital – whatever net new saving – it has taken to build a given productive structure, it takes an equal amount of ongoing gross saving to maintain it.

Thus, while many will acknowledge the Misesian futility of starting from scratch projects for which the necessary physical means are lacking, few recognise the corollary that FRB also perverts the process of ensuring the ongoing gross saving flow matches the resources needed to maintain an existing array, characterised by an extended capital structure. Herein lies another means for FRB to attack and undermine what we already have, much less foredoom a good deal of what we are starting anew.

Moreover, in today’s world the avidity with which banks seek to extend credit to consumers, not just to producers, only serves to sharpen these wholly avoidable conflicts by instigating an arms race of FR spending, one portion of which is trying to lengthen the productive structure beyond its sustainable extent and the other which strives to pull everything from the future into the present, conversely lowering capital intensity – and hence real wages – and simultaneously eradicating much of the ability to support the debts incurred as a result of this struggle.

Figure 13: Garrison’s ‘Austrian Macro’ before…

Here, too, we cross paths with the hoary old fallacy of the ‘real bills’ hypothesis. This untenable dogma was held by the so-called Banking School during the great monetary controversies of the early nineteenth century – and, in truth, is adhered to, in a broader interpretation, by central bankers today.

Figure 14: …and after intervention

At its simplest, what this says is that there can be no bad outcomes if banks restrict themselves to extending credit only on the security of documentary evidence of actual, short-dated commercial transactions, not least because these are said to be ‘self-liquidating’ and the loans are held only to ‘serve the needs of trade’.

But this only holds good if the banks are 100% reserve banks, since they otherwise entertain the power to monetize their loans – i.e., to turn into the most widely acceptable present good – evidence of the production and onward sale of a future good, i.e., of a present good yet-to-be.

Let us be clear here: we are not decrying the very necessary practice of a seller giving his customer time to pay for the wares. Business-to-business credit comprises no evil if left to itself. But, to transform this act of ‘waiting’ into a freshly-minted tranche of instant purchasing power, through the necromancy of A-and-Not-A FRB, is to turn a consensual line-up for orderly, sequential gratification into a disorderly mob of queue-jumpers and to make of every shopper a common looter.

In our well-ordered, toy economy, there is no cause for alarm if A sells to B on deferred payment terms and B to C, etc., all the way down to F who sells the resulting batch of consumer goods to his end customer base and remits the necessary monies back up the chain. In practice this theoretical self-liquidation is a trifle hard to unravel since a renewed credit chain will already be forming as the assembly lines roll on.

[To digress a moment, this reformation cannot simply be assumed away as mainstream economics tends to do as part of its crude, toilet-flush concept of end demand automatically calling forth a refilled cistern. If we can only break away from this Keynesian Cargo Cult, we should be able to see that each renewal constitutes a discrete, purposeful, entrepreneurial decision. It is here that we find the mechanism of ongoing adaptation and evolution that we call ‘growth’; here, too that the breakdown which goes by the name of ‘recession’ arises as the chains stretch and snap under credit-induced tensile loads too great to bear; and, finally, here where ham-fisted and ill-advised ‘stimulus’ packages become self-defeating by preventing the repair and re-routing of the connections necessary to put men and machines back to work and bring about ‘recovery’.]

To return to a theme, there is no difficulty to be endured if our man, A, decides he cannot wait to be paid and so persuades some third party (yes, perhaps through the intermediation of a bank) to buy B’s endorsed IOU for cash (with the inclusion of a little discount, by way of an incentive, naturally). Here, one man with a justifiable claim upon present goods (genuine money) voluntarily decides to save and so temporarily transfers his lien over them to A in exchange for B’s freely-given promise to pay.

Where this does fall apart, however, is when the FR Bank buys B’s note and credits A with an unbacked, fiduciary deposit balance. Now there has sprung into existence a claim on present goods which has not been renounced by a former holder – the bank has simply forged it – and, once again, this misdeed will provoke an undeclared struggle for resources which will disrupt relative pricing and arbitrarily re-direct spending. It will incite unforeseen migrations among the more mobile factors of production – each seeking their most remunerative new employment – and hence deprive the less mobile ones of the complementary goods necessary for the realization of their full, projected value. All of this tends to frustrate entrepreneurial calculation – most likely to A’s own ruination, since his position at the topmost, most specialized end of the chain makes him uniquely vulnerable to shifts taking place all along its lower reaches.

Thus, the application of unreal money to real bills banking theory delivers us unto the woes of the business cycle once again.

Gentlemen of the Jury

And if we were to accede to the demands of the advocates of Free Fractionalism, what compensation could we expect for allowing the serpent back into our little corner of paradise once he has dissociated himself from the support of the state? Why, we could congratulate ourselves at being beyond all aspersions of hypocrisy in our protestations of libertarianism. Less facetiously, we are told we could breathe more easily knowing that free FR banks could routinely expand and contract the money supply as demand for it waxed and waned (if you believe in the second possibility ever becoming arising, that is), thus maintaining the volume of the money flow through the economy in a fashion of which any Chicagoan or central banker would be proud.

To the contrary, we hope to have demonstrated by now that sufficient harm accrues from even a limited exercise of FRB that it constitutes a social evil to be tolerated neither by the enlightened despot nor under even the most minarchist of governing regimes, thus rebutting the first charge.

As for the second, this, too, is something of a macro-economic canard since such instabilities as this purports to minimise would in any case be unlikely to arise among a population habituated to the discipline of sound money and therefore with much less exposure to the double-edged sword of debt leverage and the insubstantial money which fosters them.

In navigating the far more robust, equity-girded productive channels which they will frequent in their dealings in a hard money world, it will be sufficient for the people to work under the instruction of committed entrepreneurs who are each intent on maximising their local success. Thus, the perceived need for macro-manipulation can safely be consigned to the dustbin of history along with theories of dephlogisticated air and tales of the bodily humours.

The entrepreneur will also become a man who runs a proper factory in a proper manner, rather than the shifty overseer of a tool-shop set up to disguise the atrium of a replica banking hall (as too many of his peers are today).

There will be less systemic frailty; fewer so-called ‘shocks’ as the lesser occurrence of incompatible plans will more rarely lead to a general grinding of the economic gears. There will be slow, productivity-induced price decay – a feature which, of itself, will tend to reinforce an anti-inflation mentality once people become attuned to it and recast their contractual arrangements in line with it. There will therefore be much less scope for inducing mass entrepreneurial error – perhaps none at all.

Thankfully, there will be no risk at all of that damaging monetary explosion known as a Boom: nor, conversely, of the general ruin which ensues amid the shattering collapse of a prior FRB inflation in what we know of as the Bust

In short, by extirpating this poisonous weed wherever it seeks to take root, we can ensure that we shall have no need to call upon the power of fractional reserve banking to protect us from the ill-consequences of fractional reserve banking itself!

The basic creed of liberty can be expressed in two Latin phrases – one other adopted by the London Stock Exchange as its motto in 1923, the other derived from Hippocrates. The former, “dictum meum pactum” – ‘My word is my bond’ – is both a declaration of personal honour and an affirmation of the sanctity of contract so essential to a largely impersonal, exchange-based economy.  The latter, “primum non nocere” is Galen’s rendition of Hippocrates’ injunction, ‘First, do no harm’ and a useful rehearsal of the doctrine of negative liberty to which we adhere.

FRB intrinsically makes promises it cannot keep, so violating the first tenet, and routinely renders harm though garbling the signals generated by the actions, not just of those who indulge in it, but all of their fellows as well, thus transgressing repeatedly against the second. I short, FRB lies, cheats, and steals, and should be proscribed forthwith.

Thus, free bankers can only become useful, respectable, entrepreneurial members of society once the deadly opium of the fractional reserve is put irrevocably beyond their use. Denying them the capacity to wreak general havoc – however unwittingly they and their customers may do so – is, we contend, both a sine qua non of effective reform and a defence of, not an abrogation of natural rights at large.

Re-Peeling the Act

Back in 1788, the Blackburn textile manufacturing giant of Livesey, Hargreaves, Astie, Smith & Hall spectacularly failed – triggering, as it did, yet another commercial panic.

In many ways the Enron of Enlightenment England, the firm had come to neglect its former practice of seeking out and employing the most technically advanced production methods in its real business in favour of a fatal fascination with the fruits of financial engineering – ultimately in a wholly fraudulent fashion.

That same year, just down the road in Bury, a rival clan of calico printers briefly set aside all consideration of the tumult caused by the bust to celebrate the birth of a son to the head of the family. Half a century later, that same child may well have reflected upon the stories told him of the troubled time he came into the world when, as the capstone of a long and noteworthy political career, the by-then Sir Robert Peel passed a famous piece of legislation – the Bank Charter Act of 1844 – aimed at heading off the possibility of any such event ever recurring again.

Sadly, the rudimentary understanding of what constituted ‘money’ in a period of changing commercial and financial arrangements – a lack hardly less prevalent today, if truth be told – thoroughly vitiated a brave attempt to limit that unbridled bank expansion which had correctly been identified as the root cause of all the woes.

Ironically, the error lay in refusing to accept that the unbacked deposits which we have here argued are an avoidable evil could not be money, precisely because not all the claimants thereto could possibly be satisfied at once. Thus did the sheer illogical nature of fractional reserve banking defeat the keen, logical minds trying to limit the excesses spawned by it!

Now this is all very well and good, you say, but how are we actually to effect such a radical change in a modern economy? Surely, we are beyond the point of no return and it would prove far too complex to reconstruct three centuries of building work, in situ, however jerry-built and ramshackle the existing edifice may be?

Well, perhaps. But there are ways to turn the arguments of the Jacobins who rule over us back to bite them, in their turn. We, too, might resolve ‘not to waste a good crisis’, but to turn the unpopularity of bankers and the growing distaste with politics-as-usual to a solid, liberating effect.

To show how this could be done – at least in principle – let us set aside our doubts about whether such a thing could be put into practice and instead concentrate on how it might be done by means of a Gedanken experiment of monetary reform that owes much to Professor George Riesman of Pepperdine University, coupled with a neat fiscal manoeuvre based on the ideas of that somewhat contested eminence, Irving Fisher, and adds a few castles-in-the-air from your author which outline a series of political changes to accompany them [1].

After all, as Sir Charles Wood, later Viscount Halifax, the then-Chairman of the Parliamentary Committee of Inquiry into Banking, put it, in 1840:

I anticipate from the adoption of this measure a less fluctuation in the amount of circulation – a less fluctuation in the range of price; but I am not so unreasonably sanguine as to suppose that it will put an end to all speculation and to all miscalculation in commercial matters. Prices will necessarily vary according to relative supply and demand for commodities at different times. Speculators will make mistakes in the calculations… prices may be unnaturally forced up and individuals may be ruined in the collapse.

All this cannot be put an end to, so long as competition exists in trade and hope of gain influences the human mind; but it is no reason why we should not remedy what is in our power because we cannot attain everything. We can prevent an additional stimulus being given to a rise of prices and undue speculations by the influence of an ill-regulated currency; and this it is the duty of the legislature to attempt.”

So, to start, firstly let us imagine that the aggregate figures which the Bank of England provides for the sterling assets and liabilities of UK banks (MFI’s or ‘Monetary Financial Institutions’ in the jargon) actually refer to a homogenous collection of banks similar in all their essential details.

Figure 15: All for One & One for All

We find that (in round figures) these banks have around £2.7 trillion in assets, of which £320 billion represent claims on each other and, hence, a similar £320 billion of liabilities due to their peers. As well as some £2.0 trillion in other liabilities, they dispose of around £380 billion in equity capital, $60 billion of which represents the emergency infusion undertaken by the government at the height of the recent Panic.

More specifically, around £800 billion of those liabilities consist of demand deposits held by entities other than banks, while £100 billion of the assets are deposits and reserves held at the Bank of England and £70 billion represents loans to, or purchases of securities from, some level of government.

Figure 16: A Closer Look

To undertake a bit of necessary housekeeping first, let us arrange for a ‘tear up’ of that whole £320 billion of ‘pig on pork’, interbank entries, much in the manner that we do with credit derivative positions, through netting and novating via a clearing house. Perhaps, as its one last act of public service (!), this can take place under the auspices of the Bank of England which will also assume direct liability for the £100 billion in demand claims which the banks have already redeposited with it as part of the extraordinary precautions they have engaged in over the past two years as they have sought to shelter from each other’s poorly-concealed frailties.

Figure 17: The Bare Essentials

Next, we come to what we have argued is the crucial point – viz., the removal of all the unbacked, unpayable, fiduciary media, demand deposits from the banks’ books, thereby relieving them of the greatest single threat to their continued existence and cutting them off from the money creation business, once and for all.

Figure 18: The Communal Strongbox

In an ideal world, we would argue that this should best be done using precious metal, but even government certificates would provide an acceptable interim solution as long as we insist no more than the amount we will finish with at the end of this transformation is ever to be printed again or accepted in settlement of any account. In practice, we will probably not need to realize much of this sum in paper form at once, since we can register the balance in a centralized, digital money warehouse, or giro office, to which anyone in the country can have a convenient electronic or smart card access simply by applying with the relevant personal details and demonstrating initial proof of a claim to some (low) minimum sum.

But if the banks now have £800 billion fewer demand liabilities, but only £100 billion fewer assets (thanks to the transfer involving the BOE), we must do something to prevent the residual £700 billion becoming a windfall addition to their net worth. We achieve this by insisting they compensate for the deposits’ redemption by issuing shares of equal value to the government (in fact, they can pay for £70 billion of that by relinquishing the claims they already hold on the state, meaning they only need issue £630 bln in new equity).

Figure 19: Taking the ‘M’ out of MFI

This obviously represents a massive – though, as we shall see, a temporary – dilution of the existing shareholders, but they are hardly in a position to complain given that they only retain a holding at all, thanks to the concerted government/central bank intervention in their favour these past two years.

Moreover, we could simply tell them that the alternative is to keep their demand depos – absent any form of government guarantee and shorn of any possibility of accessing funds from the central bank – and that they will naturally be subject, under ordinary company law, to a rigorous marking-to-market of all their existing assets. Once suspects that very few would have the temerity to run the existential risk such an option would entail, but those that do would presumably be the fitter specimens and therefore fully justified in their non-compliance – so long that is, as they swap the necessary quantity of other assets for money proper and so acquire full, 100% backing for their retained demand deposits, without delay.

At this point, the asset side of the aggregate balance sheet has lost £70bln in claims on government, £320bln in interbank lending, and £100 vis-à-vis the BoE, leaving it with a notional £2,210bln in miscellaneous claims. Against this latter total it has £1,200bln in non-demand liabilities, £320bln in private equity capital and £690bln in government equity.

Suitably reinforced, we can now apply that rigorous cleaning of the Augean stables about which the banks and their masters have been prevaricating for far too long. Assets must be marked sternly and unsentimentally to market so as to restore trust in their valuations and hence to make possible a full resumption of business on the free market, in due course.

Assuming this to take the form of a haircut of some 15% across the board from QI 2010 book levels simply by way of example and not to imply any special authorial insight into the matter), we can apportion the resultant loss of £331bln equitably among all the stock holders, leaving a privately-owned net worth of £215bln and a public stake of £464bln (a loss of around a third each).

Figure 20: The Leviathan Trust

Now comes the next clever bit: the state re-privatises its portion (taking a pro rata lien over the total portfolio) in the form of either a cash payment with which it will redeem its outstanding debt or by way of a debt-for-equity swap. The private shareholders of the bank itself are, of course, at perfect liberty to try to buy out their ‘partners’ if they can raise the necessary funds on a market where these cannot, however, now be conjured out of thin air by the witchcraft of fractional reserve banking. Failing this, the separated entity can convert itself into a closed-end fund or be subsumed into the assets of, say, an acquisitive insurance company or pension fund.

Figure 21: The Fifth Labour of Heracles

The sound, sanitised, non-fractional, private, free banking company rump left behind in this second case will thus end up with £1,415bln in solidly-valued assets funded by £1,200bln in miscellaneous, non-demand (and, hence, non-monetary) liabilities and £215bln in equity capital. More to the point, the integrity of its accounts should now be beyond all reasonable dispute.

Given that we will have no further place for fractional reserve banking; given, too, that we are going to pass a binding, balanced budget resolution through parliament; and given that we are going to convert a considerable slice of government debt to non-interest bearing, perpetual certificates (bank notes and giro entries), we shall henceforth have no need of the Bank of England and can move straightaways to abolish the problem brainchild of that old seventeenth century buccaneer, William Patterson, putting an end to its three centuries history of mischief and malfeasance.

The Old Lady herself holds £207bln in government paper against £50bln in physical notes and coins, £57bln in deposits from foreign banks, that £100bln of the public demand deposits we earlier transferred off bank balance sheets. Once again, we will redeem these latter two against a credit in our giro office and we will simply let the state assume direct responsibility for the note and coin issue, thus allowing it to cancel another £207bln in outstanding, interest-bearing debt obligations.

Figure 22: The Discontinuation of the War

Overall, the government has been able to redeem £741bln of its current £880bln of net gilt and Treasury Bill issuance in this fashion, giving it a seigniorage gain of around £22bln a year in interest savings – equivalent to a rise in VAT of over 4%. Of course, that will still leave the Chancellor with an annual hole of around £110bln to fill before he can balance the budget, as we shall insist he must.

Figure 23: The Rewards of Virtue

Happily, this will leave him no choice but to take an axe – perhaps even a flamethrower – to the strangling underbrush of the Welfare-Warfare State and so allow space for the green shoots of peaceful private enterprise to spring up.

Here at the conclusion of our programme, the public has just as much money as it had before, except it holds this now in a non-fractional form. This is neither inflationary nor deflationary (for so long as we can adhere to our bargain to allow no more money ever to be created) and so the transition should inflict the least pain on the economy, though this is not to say that there may not follow some kind of stabilization crisis as those who have come to rely too heavily on a continued flow of unsaved credit begin to make some painful, but unavoidable readjustments to their affairs.

Figure 24: Safety Deposits

Though not strictly necessary, as a next stage, we might encourage the public to buy gold and silver with their holdings, against which money certificates could be issued and hence a genuine ‘coverage’ gradually increased which would provide a better guarantee against future political backsliding. Perhaps we could even impose a small transaction levy on financial dealings, partly hypothecated for the purpose of paying the running costs of the money giro, and partly for buying metal, with this latter allotment strictly scheduled to expire the minute that all monetary liabilities have been matched with a due weight of bullion and full-blooded specie.

Were we to give full rein to our irony, we might instead raise this sum as a ‘Tonnage of all Vessels… and certain additional duties of excise upon Beer, Ale and other liquors…’!

With a safe and stable money supply equivalent to more than 25% of total gross spending, there should be no foreseeable shortage of the means to effect final payment. Banks have been restored to health and have been given incentives to develop a truly entrepreneurial business model. The central bank has had the last rites read over it, bringing an end to Whig Corruption and War Socialism, both. The government has rid itself of five-sixths of its interest-bearing debt obligations, immediately helping stabilize its finances and ‘crowding’ private investment back in to the capital markets which are themselves now made properly functioning distributors of savings.

Secure in the knowledge that we have an unshrinkable core of money to which activity can readily adjust; comforted by the recognition that we have done our best to pop bubbles while they are still the merest flecks of foam; cognisant that we have greatly limited the pyramiding of one financial risk upon another; we can now embrace falling prices as the mark of our productive expertise, the sign of our material improvement and the reward of our self-discipline and providence.

Why should the Commonwealth not now flourish and the Republic of Law not stand firm?

Custodiemus ipsos Custodes

Back in 1856 – in the wake of yet another crisis – the report of the Select Committee on the Bank Acts contained the following, trenchant phrase:-

No system of currency can secure a commercial country against the consequences of its own imprudence.

With that in mind, let us conclude this exercise by deviating from economics a little, for what these reforms need – variously, to fix them in place, to re-orient men’s thinking, and to remodel their institutions so that they can wrest the best advantage from the new landscape of sound money – are changes of a political dimension. In that light, we offer the following broad platform of proposals.

For starters, the paring back of that overgrown rent-extraction industry which is finance should not be viewed with remorse, but with relish at the prospect that all those hard-working, sharp-witted individuals who can no longer find a niche there might turn their hand to creating wealth rather than siphoning it off from others. In order to nurture such a shift, the state must not succumb to a dirigisme it, in any case, can probably no longer afford, but it must exercise foresight in removing all identifiable barriers to productive enterprise.

We want no Colberts, only Cobdens: no Five-Year Plans only freedom of association and contract.

In our newly non-inflationary world, this will thrive best within an equity culture, not a debt addiction, something which will necessitate a deep-seated alteration in the tax treatment of dividends and interest payments. Furthermore, this wholesome trend towards owning a business rather than leasing it from one’s banker should be encouraged by assisting the firm’s capacity for self-finance through a radical overhaul of the concept of depreciation allowances.

Additionally, all possible steps should be taken to assist new, competitive upstarts to challenge entrenched business dinosaurs. We want no artificial impediments to the selective pressures which will drive a constant process of improvement under a profit-seeking framework – nor do we want those profits to result from cosy deals between established corporate giants and the collusive state: we are pro-market, NOT pro-business, much less pro-Corporativismo.

A beginning might be made by enacting a drastic reduction in paperwork and regulation, together with a widespread disavowal of state interference in both labour and customer relations. All of these are burdens which tend to penalise those starting out in business, by dint of the disproportionate fraction of their meagre resources which they have to devote to satisfying their bureaucratic tormentors. A further advance would be the facilitation, not the frustration of, effective succession planning, so that we harness a man’s entrepreneurial drive to his laudable desire to provide for his family with the aim of rewarding longer-term thinking and sound business management.

Having thereby empowered the entrepreneurs who will drive this new economic wonder, we now need to ensure they have sufficient fuel in their engines. Since this capital means will henceforth take the form of genuine savings, not the pretence thereto issued by a fractional bank, such taxation as is necessary should be minimised in its impact on thrift and investment and shifted instead to weigh more on items of end consumption.

As we have mentioned above, the sundering of the unholy alliance between the Executive and the Banks will discourage too much government borrowing, but it would not hurt to underpin such parsimony by insisting upon a binding balanced-budget mandate. Restoring the power over the purse to elected representatives would be a first step on the road to devolving it all the way back to those whose money is actually being disposed of.

Stripped of its ability to offer benefits to those who will vote for it beyond anyone’s willingness to foot the bill directly, the sliding scale eradication of the vast, divisive and despotical Provider State should not just become an ideological ideal, but a financial imperative.

This would be further hastened if we were to recall both de Tocqueville’s perspicacious observation that a democracy can only last until the government realises it can bribe people with their own money and the less steadily-attributed inversion of Tytler’s that it will also fail when the people discover they can vote themselves money out of the public treasury. Here, we would propose that each person is given a fractional franchise, suffering a reduction in the weight of their vote which is graduated according to how much income they derive from the state.

Naturally, full time public employees (and employees of ostensibly private firms whose business is the fulfilment of government contracts) would be denuded of the camouflage that they, too, pay tax out of a notional gross wage, when all they really receive is the net that has been confiscated from the earnings of some put-upon private sector worker and, as a result, they would immediately be disenfranchised. Thus the taxpayer’s oft-truculent ‘servants’ would no longer be able to outweigh their currently hapless employer’s valuation of their services, or override his decision as to the strength of their overall establishment, just as those he hires privately are unable to do, either.

A surer link between value received and value given we cannot conceive of and if this means that public sector work seems less rewarding in future – or, as we suspect is much more likely, if demand for public ‘services’ is revealed as a great deal more limited once the illusion that it is ‘free at the point of delivery’ is replaced with an identifiable and personal price tag – so be it.

Beyond this, we would do all we can to rid us of the curse of the lifelong professional politician. We wish to slam the door shut in the face of the sort of fledgling Gauleiter who studies politics at university, then attaches himself to some previous generation, hack incumbent of his exact same ilk, perhaps as a researcher or – worse – a lobbyist, and then begins to wheedle his or her way up the greasy pole.

His/her apprenticeship of amoral expediency fully served, our worm next passes through that latter-day Rotten Borough, the ‘safe’ seat – to preclude which chicanery we would also insist upon full local command of the candidacy for all constituencies, backed up with a meaningful residency qualification to avoid cherry-picking by those political parachutists who drop in from Central Committee to garner the votes of those they are supposed to represent, but in whom and for whom they display neither interest nor affinity. Beyond that, and there beckons that table-scrap of patronage – the junior ministry.

Successful in attaching him/herself to the entourage of the most successful and ruthless of his party’s many venal jockeyers-for-power, our specimen ends by bagging one of the great offices of state – and then looks forward to a life of red-carpet book signings, soft sofa TV appearances, fat chequebook think-tank lectureships, lucrative company directorships, and the odd, deep slurp from the UN or EU gravy-train as a reward for what he/she claims, in his/her cant, to have been his/her long, austere years of pious self-sacrifice and disinterested public service.

Since we do not ever want decisions being made about our lives and livelihoods by men and women like this, with no experience of what it is to make an honest living in competition for a customer’s hard-earned sovereign, we would deny eligibility to Parliament to people who have not worked for at least ten years in the private sector (the authenticity of this to be judged by their average rating in our proposed fractional franchise over the period).

Since we also do not want people spending every minute of every day thinking up new rules and regulations and passing reams of intrusive new commands and prohibitions – whether to satisfy their own intellectual vanity or to promote their career prospects by seeming to be ‘effective’ – MPs should be paid no more than the most exiguous stipend by way of defraying a minimal level of expenses and they should be actively encouraged – not debarred from – simultaneously engaging in productive employment in order, severally, to make a living; to keep them well-grounded in the cares of the real world; and as a deterrent to ensure that no-one wants to loll around Westminster for too long, cooking up mischief .

That done, it would hardly be unpopular to drastically reduce the time the House sits. To convene infrequently to discuss the co-ordination of a necessary fix for something that has obviously become broken is one thing, but to be plotting and scheming, day and night, to remould Mortal Man in the planner’s image is quite another.

In fine, Parliament should only meet with the words of Cromwell pre-emptively ringing in its members’ ears: ‘You have sat too long for any good you have been doing lately – Depart, I say; and let us have done with you. In the name of God, go!’


[1] Since writing this piece, Professor Jesus Huerta de Soto of the Rey Juan Carlos University of Madrid has pointed out to the author that a broadly similar scheme of monetary reform was set out in his 1998 book Dinero, Crédito Bancario y Ciclos Económicos. A proposal along the same lines has been promoted by Toby Baxendale here.

Ethics

Cui bono? A dissent upon Mr Grantham

We’ll keep the Green Flag Flying

In a recent polemic, the well-regarded investment manager and part-time climate activist, Jeremy Grantham, set out his version of the Nicene Creed of climate alarmism and asks – either naively or disingenuously – who is supposed to benefit from all this if it is simply a ‘conspiracy’, a term deliberately chosen – along with the more emotive epithet of ‘denier’ – to ridicule the exercise of rational scientific scepticism and to deride those not fully willing to believe that everything that de Tocqueville’s ‘vast tutelary power’ disseminates is the unalloyed truth.

To answer Mr. Grantham’s question, let us consider this affliction of anthrophobic, anti-capitalistic and wholly irrational environmentalism in a little more detail, whether exemplified by cuddly panda(r) pressure groups; by the truly shocking, warmed-over eugenicists of the population reduction ‘movement’; or in the compulsory purchase of those contemporary green indulgences which masquerade as carbon permits.

Far from finding it difficult to identify who gains from the promotion of what Vaclav Klaus has rightly categorised as the greatest threat to freedom since the fall of Communism, the real problem is to separate out the beneficiaries of this most pernicious of ideologies since it serves so many disparate interests all at once.

Big business can enjoy it – as it does all regulatory blankets – as a means of disadvantaging smaller, would-be competitors. Boardroom egoists can bask in the vainglory of the eco-plaudits they can win from both kings and credulous crowds, while disregarding their primary duty to maximise shareholder returns the honest way, rather than through the public purse.

Union leaders relish it, because it allows them to dress their selfish restrictionism up in the colours of compassion. “No!” they cry, “You mustn’t move the factory to China – they pollute too much! Here at home, we may be relatively expensive, but at least we’re clean. Pay us more for the sake of your children!”

Messianic political leaders – each lustful of his precious “legacy” – the many neo-Jacobin fanatics, and the kind of frustrated dirigistes who secretly bemoan the fall of the Berlin Wall can all exploit Green scaremongering to order their twisted Dystopias, to impose whole new rafts of taxes upon their electors, and to interfere ever more closely with individual liberties as they do.

National Security Strangeloves have a certain coincidence of interests here, too, for not only can they hope that the adoption of the Cult will inhibit the economic ascent of any potential rivals to their own Hegelian deity, but they can easily substitute the militarists’ hallowed concept of “autarky” whenever they encounter the nauseating buzzword, “sustainability.”

Then there are whole faculty buildings packed with hack scientists whose uninspired work promises to deliver neither fundamental insight nor commercial usefulness, but who can enhance the importance of their pronouncements – and better harvest public funding – by uncritically endorsing the new atmospheric atavism and by tampering with their unscrutinised ‘data’ in order to give their intellectual prostitution a veneer of objectivity.

Next up we have the unwashed hordes of woad-painted New Age warriors – dole-devouring, didgeridoo-droning addle-heads – all convinced that if they throw a few brickbats outside a WTO meeting they will soon usher in the kind of faux-Celtic fantasy world best restricted to the escapist realms of the RPG addict.

In contrast, we have an entire concours d’elegance of those fad-ridden fortysomethings who are the latest designer-labelled devotees of the Earth Goddess, their Kensington mews coffee tables groaning under the forest-felling weight of the pretty picture books issued as holy writ by Gaia’s own High Priest of the Britons, the Attenborough.

Finally, we have the same hoi polloi-hating coterie of Michelin-munching, silk-suited Platonic elitists – of the kind so mercilessly exposed in John Carey’s seminal work, The Intellectuals and the Masses.

These sanctimonious, self-appointed meddlers can usually be found advocating higher taxes for budget holidaymakers while hypocritically flying first class from one five-star NGO summit to another. These are the Davos Dominicans – mendicants who nonetheless manage to live high on the hog as they seek to impose their narrow and stifling orthodoxy on all us poor, toiling peasants, while wielding Bell, Book, and Biofuel in the attempt to exorcise us of that most diabolical of fiends, the dreadful demon, Carbon.

That most ‘Open’ of Conspiracists, that most persistent of re-modellers of the human clay, that indefatigable prophet of the World State – H.G. Wells – long ago proposed much of the programme which Greens and the Carbophobes wish to bring about, while no less an infernal genius than the Marquis de Sade advocated the equation of animal and plant ‘rights’ with those of humanity which the ‘Plague Species’ misanthropes seek to write into law today.

As Wells wrote,

Religion, modern and disillusioned, has for its outward task to set itself to the control and direction of political, social, and economic life. If it does not do that, then it is no more than a drug for easing discomfort, ‘the opium of the peoples’.

Mix that re-harnessed religious instinct in with the temptations of rent-seeking, the sycophancy which attaches to power, and the hunger for power itself and it is all too simple to answer the question of who stands to benefit from a belief – real or affected – in climate orthodoxy.

Economics

Economic recalculation disrupted

Over at the Library of Economics and Liberty, Arnold Kling has an article on recalculation (reproduced below).

The two key things this otherwise highly pertinent piece neglects are (a) that ‘Recalculation’ is driven by Entrepreneurs – who must therefore not be impeded in their actions and choices – and (b) that ‘stimulus’-driven swings in currencies, interest rates and monetary value, generally, render much of the attempt at ‘Recalculation’ invalid

The Recalculation Story: A Summary

Arnold Kling

I have had a number of requests for this. I will put it below the fold.

1. Try not to think of macroeconomics in terms of equations or in terms of aggregate demand. Try to learn to think in a new language, rather than translate from the Recalculation language to something you are used to.

2. “Economic activity consists of sustainable patterns of specialization and trade.” That is the mantra of the Recalculation Story.

3. Note how difficult it is to squeeze patterns of specialization and trade into a model of a single representative agent. Robert Solow has more good points.

4. If you cook for yourself and I cook for myself, that is not economic activity. If we eat at each other’s restaurants, that is economic activity. This is true in the national income accounts, and it is justifiable. It is better to have millions of people working for you to produce your food, computers, health care, and so on than to produce them for yourself.

5. Part of the challenge of creating sustainable patterns of specialization and trade can be described as a matching problem. Think of two decks of cards, one with a list of workers with specialized skills and one with a list of occupations that utilize specialize skills. If you draw two cards at random, the chances are that they will not match. The skills of the worker will not match the skills required in the occupation. In that case, the marginal product of the worker in that occupation is very low, and the worker is unemployed.

6. The economy’s calculation problem is to sort the two decks in ways that match workers to occupations in which they have value. This problem becomes more complicated with each increment of technological progress. The number of occupations has increased, because even as some occupations become obsolete, even more occupations emerge as useful. Also, the amount of human capital needed for many occupations has increased.

7. The patterns of specialization and trade are interdependent. In some instances, there is negative feedback. A new pattern that involves automobile production has negative impact on horseshoe makers. In other instances, there is positive feedback. A new pattern that involves automobile production has a positive impact on gasoline refiners.

8. Economic profits are what indicate a sustainable pattern of specialization and trade. Ultimately, the way that we know that we have a good set of matches of workers and occupations is that employers are not losing money.

9. The sustainability of patterns of specialization and trade is always changing. New opportunities emerge, and some older patterns become obsolete.

10. A danger in the economy is that an unsustainable pattern will go unrecognized for a long time. In the recessions of the U.S. between the end of World War II and the 1980’s, excess inventories were accumulated. In the most recent episode, excesses in housing construction and mortgage finance went unrecognized for a long time.

11. If the excesses are merely short-term inventory problems, the old patterns of specialization and trade can be restored once the inventories are worked off.

12. However, if the old patterns of specialization and trade are not sustainable, the economy faces the Recalculation Problem. New patterns of specialization and trade need to be created. While the economy is creating new patterns even in good times, when it faces a Recalculation Problem it cannot create new patterns rapidly enough to prevent widespread unemployment.

13. Government can create temporary jobs for the unemployed. However, that is not the same thing as creating sustainable patterns of specialization and trade. For example, if the government subsidizes a firm that builds solar panels and those solar panels are not efficient, then this does not really represent a sustainable pattern of specialization and trade.

14. The more that patterns of specialization and trade involve government direction of resources, the greater the risk that those patterns are not sustainable.

15. It is possible that lower real wages will help to solve the Recalculation problem. However, generally speaking, when you pick a card from the worker deck and a card from the occupation deck, the match is either a good one or it isn’t.

16. The production process has become more roundabout over the years. Fewer workers are engaged in hands-on production of output. Instead, they are engaged in building what Garett Jones calls organizational capital, as indicated by functions such as marketing communications, management reporting systems, or corporate training. This means that the relationship between output and employment has become looser. It means that patterns of specialization and trade reflect not just what goods and services are produced but how they are produced.

Economics

The Captains and the Kings Depart – a dissent upon the Keynesian canard

“[Government] is apprehended, not as a committee of citizens chosen to carry on the communal business of the whole population, but as a separate and autonomous corporation, mainly devoted to exploiting the population of the benefit of its own members… The intelligent man, when he pays taxes, certainly does not feel he is making a prudent investment of his money; on the contrary, he feels he is being mulcted in an excessive amount for services that, in the main, are useless to him, and that, in substantial part, are downright inimical to him”

— H.L. Mencken, ‘More of the Same’, American Mercury 1925

Imagine a country unfortunate enough to have succumbed in conflict to a foreign enemy and now subject to a thorough-going military occupation by the forces of their victorious foes.

Young men, who have been conscripted in a vast profusion, are marched in to pacify the vanquished nation’s populace, to patrol its streets, watch over its borders and constantly to patrol its coastlines – though, in truth, much of their activity soon palls into a dull routine, being merely work for work’s sake, meant to deny the devil too many idle hands for mischief, rather than because the doing of it fulfils any useful purpose of itself.

Some of these warders of the conquered realm are barracked in camps where their basic material needs are catered to in large, centralized facilities specially built for the purpose, while others are billeted on civilian householders in their homes – whether or not these latter show any willingness to have their property used, their provisions divided, and their privacy violated in this way.

Aside from the fighting force itself, there is an even larger host of administrators, technicians, and other support staff abroad in the land, many of its members busy overseeing the activities of the conquered – issuing requisitions to the factory owners; commandeering resources; ordering farmers what to grow and where; and generally re-organizing a significant part of the people’s economic lives in order to serve the needs of their new masters in place of those of their own.

War, after all, had best be made to pay for war and all those martial souls need to be fed, shod, clad, sheltered, and even re-armed if they are to maintain their military effectiveness.

Finally, however, the glad day dawns when the war is ended and blessed peace takes its place. Bested on some far distant battlefield, the invader negotiates a peace, its armies meekly surrender their arms and the erstwhile Hectors and Horatios shuffle apprehensively off to wire-strung detention centres, there to await their fate. Meanwhile, the bells ring out in carillons of joy and young and old alike take to dancing in the streets in a great celebration of regained liberty.

As it soon transpires, large numbers of the former garrison have no wish to return to a homeland many can scarcely still remember. Besides, they have grown to love their new surroundings and many of them have found wives and sweethearts there, to boot. They plead to be allowed to stay and – at first with reluctance, but gradually with a laudable hope for reconciliation (for this occupation, while not without its share of accompanying evils, was not marked by wholesale rapine or blemished with overmuch outright atrocity) – the authorities accede to more and more of these very human requests.

Even amid the rejoicing, however, there are one or two grumblings to be heard. Will all these former soldiers not still be have to fed and clothed at our expense, some ask or – worse to some – finding productive work at last, will they not represent a drug on the market for labour, depressing the wages of us, the long-suffering natives?

Not so, reply the wiser heads. For we should see them not as a surplus, but rather as a vital human resource and each, eager to earn his keep and ply again a peaceful trade, will have to give as much value as he gets, in future, if he is to earn the goods he formerly took simply by merit of his uniform. This can only be to the benefit of all.

But, there are others, too, whose feelings of relief are decidedly mixed – the sutlers and the swordsmiths, the bar-keepers and the bawds, the munitions-makers and the mule-breeders – for all those who supplied the enemy have lost the greater part of their custom, even though their conscience must have told them that their living was being made at the final expense of those unconsenting fellow citizens whose wealth and income were being tapped to make up the soldiers’ pay and quartermasters’ drafts.

At length, they, too, still their complaints and resign themselves to seeking out another kind of clientele; to producing ploughshares not poniards or pikestaffs, all the while consoling themselves that, now the exactions of war have been stopped, the majority will have more money in their pockets and that, in the general hunger for the things long denied them during the grim, grey years of subjection, trade and industry will soon be booming once more and commerce will again flourish.

Some good while may pass before they see it this way, but certainly, no-one among even those who flourished most – or languished least – will so rue his temporary loss of business that he will advocate striking up a quarrel with some other likely nation, in order to capitulate as abjectly as possible and so refill the deserted camps and cantonments with another batch of loose-pursed intruders!

So far, the verdict here seems indisputable. The end of the occupation – though occasioning a measurable difficulty for the few, as well as a by no means trivial challenge of readjustment for the many – will overwhelmingly redound to the common weal: a truth which will be instinctively recognized in an intuition of good to come which almost everyone will later find to have been a correct one.

A Continuation of Policy by Other Means

If all the foregoing seems unobjectionable – and we fully trust that it will – then consider how little the argument changes if there is no foreign occupation, but instead the imposition of martial law by those in power domestically.

We still have the same diminution of the private sphere; still the same tyranny over people’s lives, however softly velveted is the mailed fist which holds the nation down. We still have the same forcible redirection of employment and still the same sequestration of income and arbitrary denial of property as we did when the perpetrators spoke a foreign tongue – and, on that account, we will be just as glad to be rid of all their impositions when the laws are at length repealed or the regime is toppled in the dust of despots past.

Finally, even where the intent is in no way overtly malign – where the nation has been put on a purely defensive war-footing in order to deter the aggression of a hostile neighbour – the very same conditions will apply and the very same relief will be felt when the Dogs of War are finally put back on their slips and ‘Havoc!’ no longer cried.

So, if you are with me this far, tell me why it is any different when the Home Army carries few actual arms and when most of those who fill its ranks wear no obvious uniform, or bear no fluttering pennons, but whose stormtroopers and Sonderkommandos nonetheless boss us and direct us; telling us what we can and cannot do; relieving us of a good portion of our income to pay their keep and to enact their schemes of domination; and hemming in our natural rights to property with rules and regulations which we ourselves pay for them to conjure up and to impose upon us?

What if this occupying army is in service to – nay, if it actually constitutes – the government itself?

What if comprises a host grown fat and bloated and officious as it siphons off the best milk from our herds and swipes the choicest fruit from our orchards in order to satiate its vast, pestilential, multi-million array – its troops of tax-gatherers and health-and-safety tinpots; its platoons of permit peddlers and planning panjandrums; its ranks of red-tapers, rubber-stampers, and rubbish recycling-bin riflers; its columns of closed-circuit televoyeurs and carbon credit cozeners; its divisions of dole deceivers and disability dissemblers; its junta of jobsworths, Jacks-in-Office, and gender outreach counsellors; its cohorts of Cultural Marxist commissars, and clipboard commandants; its echelons of egalitarian engineers, its squadrons of subsidy-suckers – and all the other plunderers who make up this Legion of the Damnable?

A Set of Lies Agreed Upon

Why, then, should we listen to the hand-wringing of the punditocracy when they tell us that to disband even the most ineffective and ill-disciplined section of this rapacious army of permanent occupation is somehow to condemn ourselves to ruin?

Why should we heed the brow-beating of the leader writers when they insist that to reduce even some of the country’s unsustainable deficit – not even, you will note, to try to eradicate the whole of the annual shortfall, much less to address the noxious legacy of debt accumulated over long years of easy profligacy – is for the Emperor to condemn all of us to his former nakedness if foregoes his customary non-attire (one cut by his charlatan couturiers from the virtual cloth of spending what he routinely does not earn) and dons, in its place, a debilitating hair shirt of ‘austerity’ ?

No! Better that we stop our ears to the insidious wheedlings of all the Philosopher Kings – the Stiglitzes and Soroses, the Krugmans and Kaletskys and all the other intellectual Vichy who would perpetuate our subjugation – and press on with the attempt to demobilize as many of these battalions of bad husbandry as possible.

Nor should we be persuaded that, without the reckless dollops of Other People’s Money which the vote-buying minions of the State dish out in all their counter-productive billions, the real economy will crumble and blow away in the wind: that shops will empty and factories shutter; that the lights of enterprise will dim, and flicker, and fade – any more than they would if a foreign conqueror were to relinquish his pitiless hold upon those who own them and allow them to take charge, once more, of their own destinies.

Rather, we should steel ourselves for the challenge ahead in a frame of resolute self-reliance and, to show our true intent, we should first make plain our utter rejection of the doom-mongers’ vision of a people grown too servile and enervated under the heels of the horde which strangles their growth and saps their strength that they dare not greet their own liberation with the utmost, unqualified, clarion jubilation.

Otherwise, this will be a long, protracted war, and, as Sun Tzu himself noted all those centuries ago, no country has ever benefited from such a calamity – to which aphorism, we might add, all too few have emerged with even their money, much less their wealth, intact, either. It may also be true that ‘there’s a great deal of ruin in a nation,’ but keep in mind that when Adam Smith penned those words, at a bleak moment in British history, he was making an observation, not a policy recommendation.

Economics

USA enters the double dip

For those of you who have read AEP’s latest Armageddon story in the Telegraph, though the details of his ‘monetary’ analysis are, of course, suspect, the truth is that US money supply – properly measured – has slowed alarmingly of late, making the deceleration from last year’s peak one of the largest in the record. Regular readers will know that we set great store by such indicators and that we have been saying for some time that the real economy should be starting to feel the effects by the end of the third quarter.

Economics

Beware of Mr. Wolf

The Saving Grace

In a recent editorial, Martin Wolf of the Financial Times – and one of the Tories’ newly appointed Wise Men on banking reform – has been fretting about what he calls ‘financial repression’ – an unpleasant experience we are all apparently about to undergo as insolvent governments take ever more draconian measures in the vain attempt to forestall the inexorable workings of economic law.

It strikes us as funny how the possibility of suffering this sort of violation of our shrinking personal freedoms never seems to have occurred to Mr. Wolf and his fellow nomenklatura when they were all deriding us Austrians in 2007/8 for arguing that the best means of resolving the banking crisis was simply to adhere to a strict policy minimalism which would offer only the most unavoidably last-ditch safeguards to the innocent bystanders, whilst otherwise insisting on the rigorous and universal application of basic accounting standards to all with pretensions to public incorporation.

Then, we said, we should insist upon an unflinching economic triage, pursued through the bankruptcy courts, for all those who succumbed to the normal rigours of inspection. For our temerity, Mr. Wolf and his ilk flung the tired old ad hominem of ‘Liquidationists’ at us, while trotting out the Golden Calf of Keynes and invoking all the other Philosopher King rhetoric about how the beneficent state could effect a rescue from the ‘market’ failure (actually, an oft-repeated implosion of unbridled financial corporatism) which would otherwise engulf us all.

But, pass on a few years and, now that the respectable establishment pairing of Reinhart and Rogoff have published a quasi-empirical compendium of the many historical precursors of today’s crisis – a record accorded an undue profundity simply because most modern, pseudo-scientist, New Keynesian, DSGE modellers are so lamentably ignorant of anything which happened before they started playing with differential calculus at college – we find that Mr. Wolf is beginning to despair of Leviathan’s ability to compensate for the widespread malfeasance in which it was itself necessarily complicit all along.

Initially, we tried to keep the balls in the air by throwing only a rather notional dollop of ‘taxpayers’ money’ at the banks – originally only ‘theirs’ (or, more strictly, at their expense) to the extent that the copious central bank creation of that money as the core of the crisis response might potentially diminished the worth of the stock of it already in said taxpayers’ possession. But, alas, we must now lift the wherewithal directly from their pockets, whether by taxing them more heavily or by denying them their accustomed easy access to an over lavish public trough.

In the meanwhile, however, the problems have only grown larger, the debt mountains higher, the political entanglements more Gordian, the perverse incentives more corrosive, than they were back when Lehman was thrown to the wolves by way of a misdirection from the conjurer’s trick of using AIG as a conduit to make most of Dick Fuld’s more politically-adept, billionaire-buccaneer competitors whole again from the public purse.

So now, with typical Collectivist inconsistency, Mr. Wolf’s fear seems to be that the banks will have the constituents of their balance sheets dictated to them; that pension funds will be made first to serve the state, and only afterwards their subscribers; that ‘interest rate ceilings will be imposed’; and that the free movement of capital will be hemmed about with arbitrary restrictions.

Forgive the cynicism, but isn’t this shopping list exactly what, not too long ago, the interventionist pundits and ‘Kathedersozialisten’ – Mises’ socialist professoriate – were, to a man, proffering as the solution to, not the source of, all our woes?

Thus the decline of the market order (in truth, a process which occurs when those quintessentially non-market giants – the state-cosseted, fractional reserve banks – are increasing their unbacked, forced-currency lending, not when they are restricting it ) has led, with a grim inevitability, to the defeat of the Versorgungstaat  – the Provider State – which had presumed to supplant it.

Nothing daunted, the governing elite predictably refuses either to learn from this reversal or to rein in its rapacious political ambitions, but crosses more fully over from the illusory compromise of the ‘Third Way’ into ever more totalitarian behaviour. Though the transition to the Zwangswirtschaft – or Command Economy – may initially take the form of relatively trivial irritants such as banning ‘naked’ short-selling, it is soon being reinforced with more sinister, Big Brother measures such as imposing restrictions on the amount of the state’s own legal tender deemed acceptable in ostensibly private transactions. From thence it is but a small step to imposing foreign exchange restrictions and capital exit levies, and enacting all manner of other revocations of basic human freedoms, as Roepke long ago made plain.

Such a ‘Vampire Economy’ – regardless of the false distinction of whether the overseers consider themselves as belonging to the Right or the Left – always has for its motto: Gemeinnutz geht vor Eigennutz – ‘the Needs of the Collective before the Needs of the Individual’. By comparison, a liberal dose of ‘liquidationism’ might seem a relatively mild restorative, eh, Mr Wolf?

Augustine’s Prayer

Well perhaps not, for only a week or two after the publication of this exercise in self-contradiction, Mr. Wolf provided us with another classic tergiversation in a missive which – echoing a growing groundswell of collectivist anguish – carried the direst of admonitions that to introduce ‘fiscal austerity’ (i.e., sound finance) now would be to bear the world back to the dreaded event horizon of ‘debt deflation’ and that, therefore, this was a step to be postponed, sine die.

Once again, we must point out that this sort of chronic theoretical inconsistency – when wedded to the inexorable institutional implacability of the behemoth state in its quest to gobble up ever more of the private sphere – is among the core reasons why we Austrians can sometimes seem as if all we counsel is despair when we vehemently oppose that ever-changing succession of quick fixes and quack remedies which masquerades among the mainstream as ‘counter-cyclical policy’.

Starting from the fantasy of the Tooth Fairy economics which lies at the heart of Keynes’ ‘bread from stone’, underconsumptionist delusions, our opponents always urgently advocate that somebody, somewhere, must start living beyond their means in order to compensate for those poor, put-upon prodigals who have s-o-o unfairly been forced to resume living within theirs after years of eating their own seedcorn, a feast they gorged upon while simultaneously tearing holes in the roof which sheltered the reserves of their more prudent neighbours.

When this, in turn, degenerates into a budgetary disaster for those who heeded the call to alms (sic), and in the absence of anyone else to inveigle into self-ruination, they instead echo the hypocritical prayer of Augustine of Hippo, ‘Lord, make me chaste – but not yet!’ Meanwhile, their friends in government will have vastly expanded their destructive meddling in affairs which should be none of their concern in line with that dreadful, progressively tyrannising asymmetry whereby they always increase their incursions with alacrity, but only withdraw again with the utmost reluctance, snarling and growling and rabid to devour any untapped sources of wealth they can sink their fangs into in the attempt to limit the scale and duration of their own retreat – and wider consequences be damned!

As a result of all this serial befuddlement, we have now reached as stage where the banks are excoriated on the one hand for causing the bust (true, but who were their most insistent accomplices?); are faced with having to meet tougher capital measures (only a partial solution while fiat and fractions abound); are threatened with a transaction levy, or a profits surtax (making the required capital raising more dubious and more fraught with costs likely to be passed straight on to their customers) and yet are vigorously condemned for ‘holding back recovery’ by not repeating the insanities of the boom years and forcing unaffordable credit down the throats of those still misguided enough to employ the  proceeds in unremunerative consumption.

Moreover, this crass, have-it-both-ways populism is one which takes place even though said banks – as the back-door to the monetization of that same orogenesis of government debt to which their own (and their biggest customers’) rescue partly gave rise – are entangled in a vast scheme of legalized fraud,  a veritable  Ponzi-within-a Ponzi.

As components of this whirligig, banks receive support from the state and then buy the same sovereign debt by means of which they themselves are being buttressed. Then, however, the state overextends itself and likewise needs a ‘rescue’ and so increases its call on its banks.

Long unable to attract sufficient savings to fund their loans, the banks are again soon struggling even to borrow from their fellow banks – since each is fully cognisant of the horrors on his own balance sheet and so is justifiably fearful of what lurks on those of his counterparties. So, to break the logjam, not only does the central bank step in to buy government debt directly – albeit with a specious promise to ‘sterilize’ this one, narrow class of transaction – but it ups its provision of repurchase finance (lending ostensibly short-term, but perpetually rolled, money against the collateral of those same, increasingly unsaleable bonds), as well as its buying of the commercial banks’ own, unloved security issues. Ludicrously, while trying to restore function to the by-now moribund money market, the CB then short-circuits the flow by allowing the banks to place untold billions of the resulting balances back on deposit with it, greatly lowering the incentives for them to overcome their mutual mistrust, as it does.

Of course, this cannot but increase the risks carried on the central bank’s own balance sheet and soon there arises a threat to its thin sliver of (a rather virtual sort of) capital which, in extremis, it implicitly relies upon being replaced by …   well, by the near-bankrupt government it is funding in the first place and which will borrowing the necessary money from the banks it and the central bank are manfully propping up!

Who says it is impossible to pull oneself up by the bootstraps in a world of fiat money, fractional reserves, and fictional accounting?

Maginot Line Mentality

But even this was not enough for our sage, for the next sally into the debate over whether we should retrench or not took the form of an endorsement of those who employ the standard, approach to budgetary arithmetic; a crew of inveterate aggregationists who imagine the world is composed of three armies of faceless automata labelled the ‘Private Sector’ (split into the two divisions of ‘Households’ and ‘Businesses’), the ‘Public Sector’, and ‘Foreigners. These peddlers of half-truth are once again out in force, warning against any premature ‘belt-tightening’ on the part of the Provider State.

According to this overly simplistic view, if someone is reducing his indebtedness, someone else must be inveigled into raising his and hence, if the domestic private sector in Country A still wants to live within its means when its overlords are also showing some thoroughly unaccustomed restraint, then either the government or populace of Country B must live outside of theirs (i.e, they must run a current account deficit) in order to make this possible. Since, the macromancers say, not EVERYONE can run a trade surplus at once, this is a strategy doomed to failure and, ergo, no-one at all should take the initiative now to put their own house in order, lest they disarrange that belonging to somebody else.

Truly, it is remarkable how otherwise intelligent men can tie themselves up in such phantom paradoxes, all built on logical houses of sand, whenever they turn to pontificating on matters economic. And to think it was Keynes who had the gall to accuse Hayek of following an initial mistake with ‘remorseless’ logic to end up in Bedlam!

At its root, the alleged problem of ‘saving’ is often viewed with the same fearful mindset which informs all enemies of progress, sanctifying a status quo ante which may in fact be very less than ideal and applying the same paralysing pseudo-rationale of the ‘precautionary principle’ as do the worst Green Salemites.

The mental model is that if B usually buys $100 of merchandise from A, giving him the money to spend on C’s wares and, in turn, furnishing C with the wherewithal to buy B’s goods, this closes a neat little circuit which must henceforth be preserved intact and unaltered, at all costs. But, let A hold on to his money instead and now, it is said, both B and C will lose custom (assuming they have no direct need for each other’s goods). ‘Saving’ therefore leads to a collapse of trade and a general impoverishment.

Well, yes – unless either B or C persuades A to hold an asset in lieu of the cash they need to circulate the fruits of their labour: i.e., unless they transfer the right to some of their property to A in order to satisfy his desire to hold a reserve of wealth in place of enjoying the satisfaction of more goods.

Here, the problem is that the doom-mongers have failed to distinguish between a stock and a flow – between issuing new debt and selling existing claims at, presumably, a better price now that demand for them has risen, thanks to A’s thrift.

For example, the global stock of international debt securities tends to increase by around 10% – and that of domestic debt securities by some 5% – per annum, so ‘saving’ can imply buying out of the much larger granary of old, ‘secondary’ paper, as well as taking up the lesser harvest of new, ‘primary’ issuance. For the seller, this only represents a portfolio shift (from bonds, etc., to cash), but the buyer’s actions will also tend to raise the price  – and hence lower the yield – on bonds at first, but by extension on capital means in general, and so will surely provoke a response from someone (let’s call him D) with an investible idea whose estimated return might finally exceed a hurdle-rate which has just been lowered by dint of A’s purchase (anyone who denies the efficacy of this mechanism thereby removes the rationale for the very kind of central bank intervention for which anti-savers like Mr. Wolf are incessantly bleating).

Since our saver has foregone a call upon a batch of actual goods (or readily available services), this transfer of purchasing power from A to the new market entrant D also comes complete with a corresponding physical reality of economically employable means (in stark contrast to the destabilising struggle to ‘force’ saving which is routinely unleashed during unbacked credit creation). This is nothing less than capital formation at its most basic and much more of it – rightly directed by uninhibited, delocalised market price signals – is what we want if we are to lead all the army of un- and under-employed back into gainful work.

Even if there is no D to join in the interaction – if we assume that there was ‘full employment’ and few identifiably underutilised productive means – B and C do still have their unsold output at their disposal. Their challenge, therefore, is not to implore the state to frustrate A’s freely-expressed change in preferences to their personal benefit (which is what ‘stimulus’ and inflation do), but to find another way to put it to use; to alter it or to recombine it (perhaps in co-operation with one another) so as better to fit their productive abilities to the newly-altered configuration of demand being given vent upon the market.

This imperative is a matter of horror for the sort of interventionist who wants to fossilize the economy and lock everyone into the same static patterns of exchange which were briefly achieved at the top of the Boom, condemning everyone to life in a kind of industrial theme park or commercial conservation zone.  In so doing, the Nobelist meddlers never seem to acknowledge that the very fact of the Bust having taken place implies that the prevailing pattern of activity is unsustainable and self-aggravating, riven with conflicting goals and abuzz with scrambled signals.

Few complain when we over-expand and misapply our efforts in the Boom as we do when we are led astray by a flood of unbacked credit creation, but, somehow, like a beleaguered Wehrmacht commander on the Russian Front, ‘Das ist Verboten’ to retreat the merest inch in order to retrieve our gross strategic errors. The intoxication of the former false prosperity may have led us into a blind alley of our own construction, but we must never attempt to retrace our steps, much less demolish its walls and use the bricks to build something more rewarding.

But, to the contrary – and for all that it undoubtedly involves at least a temporary hardship for the individuals caught up as these shifts take place – such a withdrawal is, nonetheless, an unavoidable requirement of our return to a full participation in an evolving, dynamic economy and, accordingly, we can even construe the turmoil as a salutary experience – at least, to the extent that it provokes a genuine entrepreneurial response to a rapidly changing environment.

Three Billion for Sparta

Returning to our schematics from above, yet another possibility is that while our original three – A, B, and C – are going about their business carousel as normal, there is a temporarily impecunious D who accepts a service from a fifth player, E, in return for a promise to pay at some future date.

Here we cannot resist a diversion to ask, only partly with tongue in cheek, did E here extend credit or did he save – i.e., sell more in this period than he bought, acquiring a financial claim as a mark of his forbearance? The reason for the question is that this business of ‘vendor finance’ is usually lauded by underconsumptionists everywhere as a boon to society whereas, in fact, its indiscriminate practice – made all the more prevalent in an easy-money environment of low interest rates, stretched payment terms, vanishing down payments, and lucrative securitisation – is nowadays one of the main contributors to the Rake’s Progress which always precedes the traumas of the Bust.

But, back to our former fivesome. Suppose next that D persuades C to hire him, works his contracted stint, and receives a cash payment which (i) D uses to redeem his IOU from E; and which (ii) is therefore now denied to C’s former supplier B, thus breaking the ABC circle just as surely as before. Disaster surely beckons again, this time thanks to D’s egotistical and anti-social act of working where once he was idle and saving where once he blithely overspent, the miserly, self-supporting swine!

But, not so fast: in place of a rather illiquid and possibly non-negotiable IOU, E now has good, hard cash burning a hole in his pocket and so may choose to spend it on the goods for which B is desperately seeking a market. Shelves empty and pockets full, B can then buy his usual consignment from A and A from C, leaving C able to renew his employment of D who can henceforth enjoy a steady stream of E’s services, this time paying cash on the nail.

So, rather than spelling doom to all concerned, D’s renewed adherence to a balanced budget has actually widened the commercial network, increased the division of labour, and potentially enriched all thereby. Yes, there has been a potential for disruption, but its flipside was an opportunity for change which was susceptible of the exercise of entrepreneurial flexibility and vision, an act that not only diminished the negatives, but profitably exploited them.

Yes, E was induced to dissave as the counterpart to D’s saving – but how do we know he was not itching to do this all along and had only grudgingly accepted the latter’s custom, on what he may have seen as highly disadvantageous terms, for want of a better alternative? Mr. Wolf (again) apparently presumes to know that the contrary was the case!

It might be useful here to recap on what we might mean when we use the term, ‘saving’. Do we mean refraining from using one’s income to buy, not a consumable, but a longer-lasting, good – hopefully one which may throw off its own income stream (i.e., do we mean acquiring capital)?

Do we mean making good the legacy of past dissaving by delivering surplus goods and services now to make recompense for the excess of which we availed ourselves earlier?

Or do we merely mean restoring a match between income and outgo, neither paying down our existing obligations nor contracting any new ones?

Even FT opinion writers can surely not condemn the first of these acts – it is, after all, the very cause of our rise from the Hobbesian immiseration which so plagued our ancestors. As for the second, surely the idea of making good on one’s contracts – which is all this fundamentally entails – is also one of the bedrocks of our material well-being: just visit one of the many benighted countries where this is not to be expected, if you doubt this.

Finally, the last case implies that, henceforth, we will endeavour to give as much as we receive; that we will no longer live as a cuckoo in the nest at someone else’s expense – hardly a reprehensible change of behaviour, one might think, were it not for that reverse quantum-weirdness threshold of modern macro-economics whereby all that makes implicit sense on our everyday scale gives rise to an incomprehensible (but exquisitely mathematically-tractable),  Red Queen Wonderland of ‘believing six impossible things before breakfast’ as we cross to a different one (here, to a larger, rather than a smaller scale, as in real science).

Above all, this angst about the supposedly dire consequences of reducing the toll taken of our labour and of our wealth by that most wasteful and capricious of actors – the State – shows a dreadful paucity of imagination. It also displays the usual stultifying effect of thinking of six billion-odd aspiring individuals as merely the mindless constituents in some homogenous, macro-economic slime mould.

Before he pontificates next time, perhaps Mr. Wolf should ask himself: is there no-one in the world who wishes to borrow or to raise equity? Is the whole teeming horde of humanity so well-endowed with capital means  – and so poorly supplied with the entrepreneurial ideas with which to usefully employ them  – that no-one can be found to take goods in exchange for a simple IOU or business participation?

It cannot be emphasised enough that there is no microeconomics and macroeconomics, but only economics, rightly defined, and an overly erudite Shamanism masquerading as such. Ultimately, we are dealing here with a problem which seems to show the superiority of the latter over the former but which has been carefully posed in a deliberately misleading way by those who now mock the sensible, but silent, majority as ‘Austerians’ in order to produce their usual required answer – the desirability of ever more government intrusion in our lives.

The Road less Travelled

So, yes, it may be true that we can’t all run an austerity programme if we assume that each of the named three broad groupings are completely monolithic in their behaviour. Nor dare we do so if we further insist that some arbitrary – but largely fictive and decidedly sub-optimal level of ‘demand’ – or, worse, of ‘growth’ in that demand – MUST be maintained without interruption, no matter what the cost, even when this is akin to telling a man suffering from exhaustion that if he does not get up from his hospital bed and back on the treadmill forthwith – and although his doctors continually have to pump him full of harmful pharmaceuticals just to keep him clinging there – he has no hope of a cure.

There is a strain of Keynesian perversity which maintains that the great blessing which was the Second World War was what finally ‘ended the Great Depression,’ if only by wasting an inconceivable amount of wealth, by killing and maiming millions, and by forcibly conscripting – enslaving – millions more in the armed forces. In this present attempt to decry good housekeeping, we see the same aberration at work – infused, as ever, with the Planners’ inherent contempt for ordinary human initiative and self-reliance.

How else can we categorise a policy which assumes that to commandeer resources willy-nilly and to consume them in pursuit of even the most frivolous – or nakedly partisan – of ends is somehow to confer a benefit on a society composed of foolish little people who have independently decided they should commit the cardinal error of consuming a little less, all by themselves and in despite of the contrary wisdom of their betters?

But, just stop for a moment to ask yourself: if the government were to cease the pretence of educating your children tomorrow, would you just give up on their instruction entirely? If not, if the cuts now deny you a ‘service’ which you do not sufficiently value to replace with one to which you must voluntarily subscribe, it was clearly so far down your list of subjective preferences that the whole effort to provide it was a misguided one in the first place. In essence, if you will not spend your own money on what the state offers, why should you either expect to spend someone else’s, or else welcome having the thing imposed upon you by force?

Moreover, just how do we suppose all this government spending is determined and what do we imagine are its effects? Even in some Utopia where it was carried out in a totally disinterested fashion and with a complete disregard for its base, political returns, those disbursing the funds from this fantasy Whitehall can have no real idea of whether they are using them to their best purpose, as Mises and Hayek long ago made plain.

Worse, by spending on things which are either under-productive (in particular, the surplus goods churned out by zombie companies and obsolescent industries), unproductive (make-work programmes and Olympic stadia), or even utterly counter-productive (e.g., the Health & Safety Stasi and all the bloody panoply of foreign adventurism), they are exercising a demand where none freely exists, further distorting the crucial relative price signals which best ensure the harmonious working of the economy. A reduction in the number and magnitude of such impediments to material well-being is hardly a loss, therefore, should the state desist from its urge to launch yet another tired, old, New Deal.

To return to the case of schooling which we adduced above, the chances are, of course, that you would take over direct responsibility for the task, perhaps by clubbing together with your neighbours to hire a tutor or tutors to work for you and by using the larger after-tax (or after-inflation) income the shrunken state has now left in your pocket to engage one or more recently-released teachers at what will probably turn out to be a lower overall cost – and for a greater overall return – than before.

After all, you will no longer have to support him – under threat of imprisonment if you demur – when he tries to fill your children’s heads with crude propaganda or wastes their time on fatuous, centrally-mandated exercises in Cultural Marxism. Nor will you have to pay for all the intervening layers of bureaucrats who not only steal your money and transfer it to some government-appointed pedagogue – regardless of this latter’s personal merit and absent any control over what he purports to teach your offspring – but who also each take a sizeable cut for both their current upkeep and their own, feather-bedded, early retirements at every one of the many intervening acts of paper-shuffling along the way.

More directly, do you suppose it too far-fetched to imagine that the similarly disburdened businessman might be tempted to take advantage of the abundance of cheap resources, both human and material – suddenly liberated by this dreadful act of ‘austerity’ from the state’s vast and profligate commissariat – and so give a gainful, market-directed, mutually-enriching, carefully-husbanded, private employment to them in place of the gross misuse to which they were previously subjected by an intemperate and illiberal Leviathan?

Finally, given that, this way, we will each end up doing more for ourselves, with greater efficiency, and with far more personal sway over our choices than otherwise would have been the case, might we not only have more to spend on other things, once the necessities of life have been seen to, but be a good deal happier about the whole arrangement, to boot?

In sum, if ‘austerity’ now means a short, recuperative spell in purgatory, the quicker to attain the Promised Land beyond, we cannot quit the present Road to Serfdom quickly enough, no matter what blandishments Mr. Wolf and his intellectual kith promise will be offered to the unheeding traveller if he will only continue to trudge upon its wearisome paving – an ill-fitting stonework uniquely comprised of Good Intentions.

Economics

Martin Wolf and the Vampire Economy

So, in a recent editorial, the FT’s Great Thinker, Martin Wolf, has been fretting that we are about to undergo a period of what he calls ‘financial repression’ as insolvent governments take ever more draconian measures in the vain attempt to forestall the inexorable workings of economic law.

Funny how this never seems to have occurred to him and his fellow nomenklatura when they were all deriding us Austrians in 2007/8 for arguing that the best means of resolving the banking crisis was simply to adhere to an austere policy minimalism which would offer only the most unavoidably last-ditch safeguards to the innocent bystanders, while otherwise insisting on the rigorous and universal application of accounting standards. Then, we said, we should insist upon an unflinching economic triage, pursued through the bankruptcy courts, for all those who could not pass the inspection. For our temerity, Mr. Wolf and his ilk flung the tired old ad hominem of ‘Liquidationists’ at us, while trotting out the Golden Calf of Keynes and invoking all the other Philosopher King rhetoric about how the beneficent state could effect a rescue from the ‘market’ failure (actually, an oft-repeated implosion of unbridled financial corporatism) which would otherwise engulf us all.

But, pass on a few years and now that the respectable establishment pairing of Reinhart and Rogoff have published a quasi-empirical compendium of the many historical precursors of which most modern, pseudo-scientist, New Keynesian, DSGE modellers are so lamentably ignorant, we find that Mr. Wolf is beginning to despair of Leviathan’s ability to compensate for the widespread malfeasance in which it was itself necessarily complicit all along.

So it is that we have passed from throwing  a rather notional dollop of ‘taxpayers’ money’ at the banks – originally only theirs to the extent that the copious central bank creation of that money as the core of the crisis response was potentially diminishing the worth of the stock of it already in said taxpayers’ possession – to lifting money directly from their pockets, whether by taxing them more heavily or denying them their accustomed easy access to an over lavish public trough. In the meanwhile, however, the problems have only grown larger – the debt mountains higher, the political entanglements more Gordian, the perverse incentives more corrosive – than they were back when Lehman was thrown to the wolves by way of misdirection from the conjurer’s trick of using AIG as a conduit to make most of Dick Fuld’s more politically adept competitors whole again.

So now, with typical Collectivist inconsistency, the fear seems to be that the banks will have the constituents of their balance sheets dictated; that pension funds will be made first to serve the state, and only afterwards their subscribers; that ‘interest rate ceilings will be imposed’; and that the free movement of capital will be hemmed about.

Forgive the cynicism, but isn’t this shopping list exactly what, not too long ago, the interventionist pundits and ‘Kathedersozialisten’ were, to a man, proffering as the solution to, not the source of, all our woes?

Thus the decline of the market order (in truth a process which occurs when those quintessentially non-market giants, the state-cosseted, fractional reserve banks, are increasing their unbacked, forced-currency lending, not when they are restricting it) leads, with a grim inevitability, to the defeat of the Versorgungstaat which had presumed to supplant it. Nothing daunted, the governing elite predictably refuses to learn from this reversal or rein in its rapacious political ambitions, but crosses more fully over from the illusory compromise of the ‘Third Way’ into ever more totalitarian behaviour. Though the transition to the Zwangswirtschaft may initially take the form of relatively trivial irritants such as banning ‘naked’ short-selling, it is soon being reinforced with more sinister, Big Brother measures such as imposing restrictions on the amount of the state’s own legal tender deemed acceptable in ostensibly private transactions. From thence it is but a small step to imposing foreign exchange restrictions, capital exit levies, and enacting all manner of other revocations of basic human freedoms as Roepke long ago made plain.

Such a ‘Vampire Economy’ – regardless of the false distinction of whether the overseers consider themselves as belonging to the Right or the Left – always has for its motto: Gemeinnutz geht vor Eigennutz. By comparison, a liberal dose of ‘liquidationism’ might seem a relatively mild restorative, eh, Mr Wolf?