Estimating the shape of the coming crisis
With a recession become increasingly certain and the end of the expansionary phase of the credit cycle in sight, we can expect a periodic…
Read MoreEconomic Cycles
The Theory and Brief History of Money and Banking
[This article is part of the Understanding Money Mechanics series, by Robert P. Murphy. The series will be published as a book in late 2020.] The…
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Statistical misdirection
Economists who understand credit cycles expect the current cycle to enter its crisis stage at any moment. Furthermore, it combines with increasing trade tariffs…
Read MoreAre we heading for a liquidity trap?
With interest rates in many countries close to zero or even negative some commentators are of the view that monetary policy of the…
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From Zero Hedge ::: Lagarde – “We Should Be Happier To Have A Job Than To Have Savings”
Any hopes that the replacement of Mario Draghi, who on Halloween left the ECB more polarized than ever, as the core European nations revolted…
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Benn Steil: Housing Market Points to Recession By Election Day
Looking back at the years preceding the 2008 financial crisis, a critical warning sign was the surging gap between the growth in home prices…
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Inflationary financing and GDP
This article demonstrates that only government borrowing in the US and UK drives GDP growth. This surprising conclusion is confirmed by long-run statistics. GDP…
Read MoreDeeply negative nominal rates are on their way
Growing evidence of a severe global recession is sure to provoke more aggressive monetary policies from central banks. They had hoped to have the…
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Obvious Capital Consumption
We have spilled many electrons on the topic of capital consumption. Still, this is a very abstract topic and we think many people still struggle…
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“Mind-alteringly cheap”
“The problem is not so much to see what nobody has yet seen, as to think what nobody has yet thought concerning that…
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