Estimating the shape of the coming crisis
With a recession become increasingly certain and the end of the expansionary phase of the credit cycle in sight, we can expect a periodic…
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Statistical misdirection
Economists who understand credit cycles expect the current cycle to enter its crisis stage at any moment. Furthermore, it combines with increasing trade tariffs…
Read More150 years of bank credit expansion is near its end
The legal formalisation of the creation of bank credit commenced with England’s 1844 Bank Charter Act. It has led to a regular cycle of…
Read MoreThe Ghost of Failed Banks Returns
Last week’s failure in the US repo market might have had something to do with Deutsche Bank’s disposal of its prime brokerage to BNP,…
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Inflationary financing and GDP
This article demonstrates that only government borrowing in the US and UK drives GDP growth. This surprising conclusion is confirmed by long-run statistics. GDP…
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Inflationary financing and GDP
This article demonstrates that only government borrowing in the US and UK drives GDP growth. This surprising conclusion is confirmed by long-run statistics. GDP…
Read MoreDeeply negative nominal rates are on their way
Growing evidence of a severe global recession is sure to provoke more aggressive monetary policies from central banks. They had hoped to have the…
Read MoreFor those who don’t understand inflation
This article is a wake-up call for those who do not understand the true purpose of monetary inflation, and do not realise they are…
Read MoreThe Financial War Escalates
Behind the scenes, the financial war between America and China is escalating dangerously into a war to secure global financial resources. At a time…
Read MoreForget velocity of money circulation
If there is one concept that illustrates the difference between a top-down macro-economic approach and the reality of everyday life it is the velocity…
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