There’s a Herd of Elephants in the Room
Among the many problems currencies the markets face, there is one that is undocumented: the eurodollar market. This is yet another very large elephant…
Say’s Law Says It All
As the world descends into a much-heralded recession, the surprise will be that interest rates will continue to rise as economic activity contracts. This…
Beware the great unwind
This chart strongly suggests that US Treasury bond yields, widely regarded as the risk-free yardstick against which all other credit is measured are going…
The global bank credit crisis
Globally, further falls in consumer price inflation are now unlikely and there are yet further interest rate increases to come. Bond yields are already…
The real determinants of currency value
There are two components to the inflation story: the cycle of bank credit, which left to itself is self-cancelling, and the longer-term erosion of…
Updating Say’s law for modern times
It was Keynes’ offhand dismissal of Say’s law, or the law of the markets, in 1936 which is leading us into an economic and…
Sterling crisis ahead!
This article points to the factors driving sterling gilt yields higher. They are likely to lead to a sterling crisis as foreign selling gathers…
The dynamics driving the dollar down
This article examines the currency imbalances between US dollars and the other currencies and concludes that should foreign holders decide to reduce their dollar…
Deflating the credit bubble
The theme of this article is debt deflation. How likely is it that the downturn in broad money supply will continue, and if so,…
The great credit unwind and Powell’s hidden pivot
We are all now aware that the global banking system is extremely fragile. Driving bank failures is contracting credit, which in turn drives interest…