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Alasdair Macleod

Global trade in 2021
Economics3 February 21

Global trade in 2021

By Alasdair Macleod

So long as the fiat-based monetary system continues with accelerated money-printing, the US trade deficit will continue to widen. This is due to the…

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Economics6 January 21

Economic and monetary outlook for 2021

By Alasdair Macleod

The most important event in the new year is likely to be the Fed losing control of its iron grip on markets. The dollar’s…

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The consequences of budget deficits for international trade
Economics11 November 20

The consequences of budget deficits for international trade

By Alasdair Macleod

In all the economic mayhem ahead, no one is yet thinking of the consequences for trade imbalances. The twin deficit hypothesis informs us that…

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An unexpected systemic crisis is for sure
Economics19 August 20

An unexpected systemic crisis is for sure

By Alasdair Macleod

Downturns in bank credit expansion always lead to systemic problems. We are on the edge of such a downturn, which thanks to everyone’s focus…

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Explaining the credit cycle
Economics31 July 20

Explaining the credit cycle

By Alasdair Macleod

This article summarises why the credit cycle leads to alternate booms and slumps. It is only with this in mind that they can be…

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Economics27 May 20

Unintended consequences of monetary inflation

By Alasdair Macleod

“In short, the Fed is committed to rescue businesses from the greatest economic catastrophe since the great depression and probably even greater than that,…

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The looming derivative crisis
Economics22 April 20

The looming derivative crisis

By Alasdair Macleod

The powerful forces of bank credit contraction are at the heart of a rapidly evolving financial crisis in global derivatives, whose gross value is…

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The destructive force of bank credit
Economics17 April 20

The destructive force of bank credit

By Alasdair Macleod

Commentators routinely confuse the deflationary effects of a contraction of bank credit with the inflationary effects of central bank policies designed to offset it….

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Economics10 February 20

Estimating the shape of the coming crisis

By Alasdair Macleod

With a recession become increasingly certain and the end of the expansionary phase of the credit cycle in sight, we can expect a periodic…

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Statistical misdirection
Economics18 December 19

Statistical misdirection

By Alasdair Macleod

Economists who understand credit cycles expect the current cycle to enter its crisis stage at any moment. Furthermore, it combines with increasing trade tariffs…

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