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Colin Lloyd

Colin has worked in the financial and commodity markets since 1981. He started his career in physical commodities moving on to a futures and options brokerage in 1987. Here he focused on servicing bank proprietary traders, global macro and relative-value fixed income hedge funds together with managed futures advisors. He was also instrumental in the development of interest rate and credit default swaps businesses. In December 2013 he launched a macroeconomic newsletter – In the Long Run – focussing on macroeconomics and financial markets. He has recently became a director of AAIN - Asian Alternative Investments Network – a non-profit industry group with which he has been involved since its inception in 2007.

Bull market breather or beginning of the end?
Economics29 November 17

Bull market breather or beginning of the end?

By Colin Lloyd

Stock markets have finally taken a breather over the last fortnight, although the S&P 500 has made a new, marginal, high this week. Cause…

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European Bonds – warning knell or cause for celebration?
Economics18 October 17

European Bonds – warning knell or cause for celebration?

By Colin Lloyd

Greek bonds have been the best performer in the Eurozone year to date IMF austerity is still in place but there are hopes they…

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Is Chinese growth about to falter?
Economics20 September 17

Is Chinese growth about to falter?

By Colin Lloyd

The IMF revised Chinese growth forecasts higher in July – were they premature? Retail sales, industrial output and fixed investment have slowed The Real…

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Does the rising price of industrial metals herald the beginning of the next commodity super-cycle?
Economics15 September 17

Does the rising price of industrial metals herald the beginning of the next commodity super-cycle?

By Colin Lloyd

Super-cycle theory In a 2012 paper for the United Nations/DESA – Super-cycles of commodity prices since the mid-nineteenth century – Bilge Erten and José Antonio Ocampo…

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Has Bitcoin come of age?
Economics26 July 17

Has Bitcoin come of age?

By Colin Lloyd

Bitcoin (BTC) has tripled and then halved since late March Even at BTCUSD 2000 total issuance amounts to $33bln Historic volatility is high (80%)…

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Central Bank balance sheet adjustment – a path to enlightenment?
Economics20 June 17

Central Bank balance sheet adjustment – a path to enlightenment?

By Colin Lloyd

Central Bank balance sheet adjustment – a path to enlightenment? The balance sheets of the big four Central Banks reached $18.4bln last month The…

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Trade and Protectionism post globalisation
Free Trade7 June 17

Trade and Protectionism post globalisation

By Colin Lloyd

Protectionism is on the increase among developed nations The benefits of free-trade have been most evident in developing countries Short-term effects on financial markets…

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Economics11 May 17

Trumped or Stumped? The tax cut, the debt ceiling and riding the gravy train

By Colin Lloyd

A corporate tax cut from 35% to 15% will cost US$200bln/annum A Border Adjustment Tax could raise US$100bln/annum The boost to GDP growth is…

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Will technology change the prospects for emerging market growth?
Economics25 April 17

Will technology change the prospects for emerging market growth?

By Colin Lloyd

The challenge to low-cost manufacturing in emerging markets is from technology Some industries will benefit but many jobs will be displaced globally The mercantilist…

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US 30yr Swaps have yielded less than Treasuries since 2008 – does it matter?
Economics12 April 17

US 30yr Swaps have yielded less than Treasuries since 2008 – does it matter?

By Colin Lloyd

With 30yr Swap yields below T-bond yields arbitrage should be possible Higher capital requirements have increased the cost of holding T-bonds Central clearing has…

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