Via The Times Online, we learn that many economists “revolt over surprise recession data”:
Economists today cast doubt on official data showing that British gross domestic product (GDP) contracted by 0.4 per cent between July and September, claiming the surprise fall is far worse than economic reality.
The shock figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) revealed that the country remained mired in recession during the third quarter — the sixth consecutive quarter of contraction, signalling the country’s longest downturn since records began in 1955.
Economists had widely expected that the country had emerged from recession between July and September.
Well, yes, many economists had expected that but as I have explained before, most economists allow themselves to be misled by a superficial reading of numbers distorted by central bank action.
We can and must do better.