The shape of the yield curve and the state of the economy
byOn Wednesday August 14 2019, participants in financial markets were shocked by the news that the differential between the yield on the 10-year…
Economics
Inflationary financing and GDP
byThis article demonstrates that only government borrowing in the US and UK drives GDP growth. This surprising conclusion is confirmed by long-run statistics. GDP…
Take Shelter 2.0
by“The most terrifying words in the English language are: ‘I’m from the government and I’m here to help.’” Ronald Reagan. “When Nobel Prize-winner…
Inflationary financing and GDP
byThis article demonstrates that only government borrowing in the US and UK drives GDP growth. This surprising conclusion is confirmed by long-run statistics. GDP…
Why Keynes Believed Efforts to Fight Income Inequality Hinder Economic Growth
byhe economist John Maynard Keynes (1883-1946) famously said, “in the long run we are all dead.” He wasn’t saying we should ignore the long…
Serious advice
by“Given all this, what do MPs do all day? Media manipulation, not operational planning on priorities. “Unsurprisingly, most senior MPs in all three parties…
Deeply negative nominal rates are on their way
byGrowing evidence of a severe global recession is sure to provoke more aggressive monetary policies from central banks. They had hoped to have the…
The Bank’s ‘Stress’ Tests
byMy report on the Bank of England’s latest (November 2018) stress tests was published by the Adam Smith Institute on August 3rd. The purpose of the stress tests…
Does the GDP growth have anything to do with true economic growth?
byTo gain insight into the state of an economy, most financial experts and commentators rely on a statistic called the Gross Domestic Product…
The Coming Regime of the ECB: Radical Centrism
byThere is a changing of the guard at the European Central Bank this year with two important new appointments. Philip Lane, the governor of…